UU6861 – “To Activate the Non-Oil Productive Sectors in Iraq”
So today I want to say one more time we will not see any significant value increase in the dinar unless certain laws and conditions are met. One of those conditions is the cleaning up of the CBI. I firmly believe that Dr Shabibi must be back in the CBI and it must be announced publicly that he is at the helm “officially” once again. From everything I am hearing from my CBI contact the USA is very angry that this has not yet already happened.
They have also sent legislative consultants to assist in streamlining the parliamentary process and so keep asking what is the hold up in passing of the few last remaining needed laws.
As far as any progress on currency reform process we all know that the USA, WTO and the IMF want the lower denominations launched, like yesterday. So where are they?
This weekend I figured it was time to catch up on any new news concerning the currency reform progress. So this was the big weekend to make my call. The contact in the CBI is telling me that Iraq is intentionally stalling, mostly from corruption in the leadership of the CBI. They tell me that since mid November they (meaning GOI) has scheduled the launching of the lower denominations twice already but still no action by the CBI.
The good news is there is no more guessing games. We now know who and the reason for holding up this event. One of the reasons is corruption since the currency auctions will end once the RV happens. There is a ton of corruption in the auctions and huge sums of money being made by those controlling it. The other reason I am hearing is that some in the GOI finance committee feels it is not yet ready in meeting WTO requirements. On the other hand the WTO with the IMF say Iraq is more than ready.
So each points fingers at the other. This is of course ridiculous and so I want to add what I believe is happening. I believe it is the corruption in the CBI pure and simple and the GOI does not want to admit it has lost control of its monetary policy to the Maliki goons to the IMF or the USA. Remember the last two proxy governors were appointed by Maliki while he still held the prime minister position. But the good news is there is a plan to end this stalemate and return the CBI over to an independent monetary policy regulatory agency once again. I am being told the plan is to bring back Dr Shabibi.
We know that once they do launch the lower denominations their must be a 1:1 par with the US dollar for inflation adjustments first, then later a full scale RV is planned at a much higher rate (pre-war plus equity).
Do not be fooled in thinking that this initial inflation adjustment is the RV, it is NOT. Many of these so called intel “gurus” will tell you it is and get you all hyper. They will use it to promote their wed sites and forums. But then when it does not show up in the exchanges or the banks, all will be disappointed once again for the 1,001 time. So please just ignore all these people since they haven’t a clue as to what is going on in Iraq.
For instance in Iraq (Iraq only) this is how it will work. Right now a 25,000 dinar note is worth about $23 US dollars. So once they adjust for inflation, the same note will be worth $22,500 – $28,500. Citizens will gladly run to the bank to exchange their bulky 3 zero notes (part of deletion of the zeros project) for the more secure, cleaner, newer notes and coins. They will no longer have to carry a stack of currency to the market for shopping or be weary of carrying stacks of currency home on pay day.
We may NEVER see this adjustment on the global exchanges since it will take between 5-10 days to rollout and monitor the impact first in Iraq. Get it straight in your head right now that Iraqi citizens will be converting from dinar old rate to dinar new rate and so when you hear rates in Iraq you must remember and apply this. For all of us in Europe, USA, Canada etc, we will be converting our dinar to our rate of exchange for our countries of origin currency. So you see in Germany my rate may be different than yours in USA since I am going from dinar to Euro and you are going from dinar to US dollars. Yes- you may hear about different rates in different countries. It all makes perfect sense (if we use our common sense).
I know, I know …..that these so called intel “gurus” get everyone very confused instead of truly helping since with all their jabber they always talk about rates in Iraq as they listen to their so called “boots on the ground” who know even less than they.
Moving forward: I have heard that a delegation headed by secretary of the state for USA proceeded recently to Iraq for the main reason of moving the currency reform along and we may see some progress soon. Look for articles about the change over in the CBI prior to any launching of these lower denominations.
Today is Monday January 25th 2016 and just 6 more days remaining in January.
Parliament is now in session almost a week already and we have not yet seen much on the needed laws we have been waiting for.
Yesterday once again we hear confirmation that the Amnesty law is agreed upon by all and ready for a final vote. Will they vote on it soon?
The 2016 budget has also been passed, ratified and in the gazette. It is now open for spending allocations, but no RV(as I said it is not any indicator of the RV anyhow, it was not in 2015 and is not in 2016).
The problem of a huge deficit for 2016 still lingers as Abadi and parliament try to find ways to fill the gap. Now recent news that they are at least considering under study of increasing the value of the currency as an alternative.
As I also commented many times already Iraq is trying to milk the west for more money and still feels it is entitled to it since it was bombed and the west should pay for its reconstruction. This is the attitude and they feel they are entitled to it. So this too has an impact on any movement for Iraq to take advantage for themselves the financial gains they can realize if they just moved forward more aggressively in all directions. They also say that we must consider the large sums of monetary drain on fighting ISIS and DAASH on their economy. This is a factor that is impacting progress in the financial and economic sectors. But this fighting will not last much longer and then what will be their excuse?
Update: Needed Laws
NASSIF CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A FULL AGREEMENT TO PASS A GENERAL AMNESTY LAW
Special - scales News
He confirmed a member of the House of Representatives for high Nassif, on Thursday the National Alliance, there is full agreement to pass the amnesty law in the new legislative term, indicating that there is a partial agreement on the Federal Court Act.
Nassif said, L / scales News /, that "there is complete agreement between the political forces in the House of Representatives on the amnesty law," noting that "this law possible to pass in the new legislative term."
She added that "there are some partial agreements on the Federal Court Act in order to also passed in the current legislative term," pointing to "the need to amend the election law and amend the law of parties, which did not emanate to figure out where you this, O Party, which may not reach some kind of consensus between the Political forces".
The House of Representatives last Tuesday for its first session of the second legislative term to Thursday.
Update: Currency Reforms
So I bring the article below which I believe is a very good summary of just where Iraq is now in their economy. Seems they know the problem but do not have the solution. The interesting part of the article is that this is the third time already we are hearing about the study underway of increasing the value of the dinar as an alternative to bridging the gap in the deficit.
The article is also warning everyone that if something is not done quickly that a severe financial crisis will emerge during the next 2 months.
I quote from the article below – “The Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said earlier that the government continues to search for sources of funding out of the economic crisis, including internal and external borrowing and taxation and activating the customs tariff and selling bonds, international and internal subscription and implementation of projects on credit.”
I quote from the article below- “that Iraq will go through a severe financial crisis during the next two months”
I quote from the article below- “there is a crisis of confidence between the Iraqi government and international banks and even friendly countries of Iraq, as Iraq may not be able to pay its debts in the future for not the existence of an integrated infrastructure in addition to the lack of productivity of vital sectors can be an alternative to oil, such as agriculture, industry and tourism, as well as who is waging war against Iraq and the terrorist gangs that need to be big money.”
I quote from the article below – “He continued, so the international banks apologize for Iraq if he asked her to lend to face the financial crisis or to fill the budget deficit, calling on the government to resort to other alternatives other than oil, including a focus on productive sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism as well as the awareness of citizens and instill confidence in it in order to deposit his money in Iraqi banks on the grounds that there is also a crisis of confidence between the government and local banks on the one hand and between the Iraqi citizen on the other.”
I quote from the article below – “As a member of the Finance Committee MP Ahmad Rashid stressed that "the economic situation may be confusing but bridging the fiscal deficit is a real dilemma, noting that" there are several measures of the government to overcome this crisis and is now in the process of study, INCLUDING RAISING TAXES AND THE VALUE OF THE CURRENCY for the purpose of bridging the budget deficit .
SPECIALISTS: INTERNATIONAL BANKS MAY LEND TO APOLOGIZE FOR IRAQ
BAGHDAD / JD / .. after the decline in oil prices to unprecedented levels, and the absence of a prudent economic policy read the economic and financial future of the country by successive governments, have warned a number of specialists and observers of the financial and economic vulnerability of the country to the financial bankruptcy and the inability of the government to pay the salaries of the affair employees and retirees to the lack of sufficient cash flow in light of the low world oil prices, Marjaheen the arrival of oil prices to below $ 10 a barrel, as pointed out that international banks and friendly countries may apologize for lending to Iraq to cope with its financial crisis because of the lack of real assurances the ability of the Iraqi government to repay debt in the future.
He says a member of the economic and investment commission deputy Almamori proof, that Iraq will go through a severe financial crisis during the next two months, which may lead to a lack of staff salaries the timing of schedule, because of low world oil prices.
He Mamouri told / JD /: that the solutions the government of the current financial crisis and processors and threats to the country does not do any good, including external borrowing, which may not be achieved because there is a crisis of confidence between the Iraqi government and international banks and even friendly countries of Iraq, as Iraq may not be able to pay its debts in the future for not the existence of an integrated infrastructure in addition to the LACK OF PRODUCTIVITY OF VITAL SECTORS CAN BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO OIL, SUCH AS AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND TOURISM, AS WELL AS WHO IS WAGING WAR AGAINST IRAQ AND THE TERRORIST GANGS THAT NEED TO BE BIG MONEY.
He continued, so the international banks apologize for Iraq if he asked her to lend to face the financial crisis or to fill the budget deficit, calling on the government to resort to other alternatives other than oil, including a focus on productive sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism as well as the awareness of citizens and instil confidence in it in order to deposit his money in Iraqi banks on the grounds that there is also a crisis of confidence between the government and local banks on the one hand and between the Iraqi citizen on the other.
The member of the parliamentary Economic Committee on the government to invest the border crossing points and activating the levies for some service organizations, as well as fees and taxes.
As a member of the Finance Committee MP Ahmad Rashid stressed that "the economic situation may be confusing but bridging the fiscal deficit is a real dilemma, noting that" there are several measures of the government to overcome this crisis and is now in the process of study, including raising taxes and the value of the currency for the purpose of bridging the budget deficit .
He told / JD / "The government is going to have all the answers and simple proportions even not be the there are gaps or heavy burden on the citizen. He noted that "the country to the brink of bankruptcy as a result of the financial crisis and low oil prices," likely the arrival of oil prices below $ 10.
It is noteworthy that, oil prices witnessed over the past week, a remarkable collapse which recorded the lowest level over the past 12 years since I arrived last Friday to $ 25 a barrel for the OPEC basket of crudes and less than $ 30 for Brent.
The Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said earlier that the government continues to search for sources of funding out of the economic crisis, including internal and external borrowing and taxation and activating the customs tariff and selling bonds, international and internal subscription and implementation of projects on credit.
For its part, the Supreme religious authority warned of the collapse of the economic situation in the country, stressing that successive governments have wasted financial resources without the benefit them economically.
The representative of the religious authority in the province of Karbala, Ahmed net during his speech at the Friday prayer sermon, that "everyone knows that Iraq has economic and financial elements of a strong state and what God blessed him of Yes various whether the potential of the minds and the arms of his sons or natural wealth in the ground and the face of it, but the successive governments of the country for decades did not work to harness this potential to serve the people and to provide a decent life for him, but most of its financial resources wasted in successive freaks and temporary dictators wars. "
He said net "in recent years, despite emitted governments of free elections, but the situation has not changed for the better in a lot of areas, but increased the suffering of the citizens, many aspects of the Poor management and broad scale financial and administrative hand-corruption and security situations deteriorating the other hand, was prevented from investment potential of the country and financial resources for the sake of his children and their happiness service. " He called on the government to the need to find real alternatives and plans to address the financial crisis.
Update: Abadi Economic Reforms
In my last news letter I brought you news of the necessity for Iraq to coordinate with the WTO and to reform the Iraqi banking system. Now we hear news of Prime Abadi on Wednesday participating in the Davos World Economic Summit in Switzerland and meeting with the WTO president Jim Yong Kim.
What do you think this meeting was all about?
I quote from the article below – “"the Prime Minister met today, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and his entourage, were discussed during the meeting of the World Bank for Iraq SUPPORT EXPERTISE AND SIMPLIFICATION OF PROCEDURES AND ASSISTANCE FOR THE REFORM OF THE BANKING SYSTEM”.
I need everyone to wake up and take off your blinders as to what is going on now in Iraq. The GOI is moving towards a global economy but there are procedures and banking practices that need to first be in place. How many times must I show you this in articles, SMP, MOU, etc before you believe it? You want to know why Iraq does not yet have a global currency…well here it is.
I quote from the article below – World Bank President stressed that "Iraq's success is important to the whole world and they are ready for all that Iraq needs support in the experience."
So do you think Iraq is about to go global with their currency? You tell me.
I can’t give you an exact date but I will say that Abadi is moving aggressively in this direction and it will not be long. But let’s read the articles and listen to the news. They will tell us.
ABADI MEET WITH WORLD BANK PRESIDENT IN DAVOS ON THE SIDELINES OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC
Information / BAGHDAD / ..He met with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Thursday, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.
Ebadi said Office in a statement received by the agency / information / copy of it, "the Prime Minister met today, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and his entourage, were discussed during the meeting of the World Bank for Iraq support expertise and simplification of procedures and assistance for the reform of the banking system and provide expertise resources management water. "
The statement added that it "has been discussed participation of the World Bank experts in workshops and help reform the provinces to complete the transfer of powers in addition to their support for the reforms carried out by al-Abadi."
For his part, World Bank President stressed that "Iraq's success is important to the whole world and they are ready for all that Iraq needs support in the experience."
ACTIVATING THE PRODUCTION DOUBLES THE REVENUE FROM NON-OIL SECTORS
Imad emirate called for an academic economist to activate the productive sectors which would achieve the increase in public revenues, particularly from non-oil sectors.
He d. Imad al-Ani THAT CAN INCREASE OVERALL REVENUES, PARTICULARLY NON-OIL BY STARTING TO EXPLOIT THE AVAILABLE RESOURCES OF MINERAL RAW MATERIALS, PARTICULARLY NATURAL GAS RESOURCES in a way that Cbraaidat possible.
And between access this objective by raising the level of properties of the State General Administration of land and real estate and property Other terms of effectiveness and efficiency, as well as the establishment of free zones and the optimum exploitation of the geographical position enjoyed by Iraq.
He pointed to the need for investment properties Awqaf and Religious interest over activating the religious tourism, and management of public institutions and companies in accordance with the foundations of accounting standards and modern supply the government's share of the surplus profits.
He pointed to the importance of the development of the government securities market in Iraq, to their importance in the financing of the general budget, as well as its important role in the economy and its many dimensions and this Macher him INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES IN IT, INDICATING THAT IT HAS MANY BENEFITS, PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE IT REPRESENTS A WIDE RANGE OF ACTION OF FISCAL POLICY THE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FINANCIAL AND MONETARY VARIABLES, PARTICULARLY ON INTEREST RATES AND THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE LOCAL CURRENCY INFLATION.
Concluded d. Imad al-Ani, saying: These procedures give ample space for the application of more efficient and effective monetary policy by the central bank's operations, as the government bond market while providing the opportunity for monetary authorities to achieve many related to the functions and activities of these authorities, benefits, and most important of these benefits and advantages that the existence of such markets help in the transition towards the use of indirect instruments of monetary policy management and, in particular, market operations.
Update: Fighting ISIS
I present the article below on the latest news of the future efforts to retake Mosul.
I quote from the article below – “US secretary of defense explained that the plan provides for the restoration of mosul through a double process, since Iraqi forces launched an offensive from the south, while chen iraqi Kurdish forces attacked from the north”.
Now we know their basic strategy. This strategy was reviewed twice both in a Paris meeting with core coalition countries (and agreed to) and again in the Davos meeting.
CARTER'S PLAN FOR THE RESTORATION OF MOSUL: IRAQI FORCES IN THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE PESHMERGA ACCEPTABLE PLAN
Twilight News / US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said Friday in Davos, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on the same wave with the international coalition in the campaign against the organization of the Islamic state and the goal of the restoration of Mosul.
Carter told reporters after his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister on the sidelines of the World Economic Summit in Davos that "conceivable (Abadi) to plan the battle" against the jihadists "are the same as those discussed by the beginning of the week in Paris."
Carter was referring to a meeting of the core countries participating in the coalition against al-Islamic state Wednesday in Paris, which considered that the goal in Iraq now lies in the focus on the restoration of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, dominated by the organization in June 2014.
US SECRETARY OF DEFENSE EXPLAINED THAT THE PLAN PROVIDES FOR THE RESTORATION OF MOSUL THROUGH A DOUBLE PROCESS, SINCE IRAQI FORCES LAUNCHED AN OFFENSIVE FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE CHEN IRAQI KURDISH FORCES ATTACKED FROM THE NORTH.
Carter pointed out that "this plan acceptable to both Baghdad and Erbil," the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.
He said that this "momentum born of the victory of the" Iraqi forces in Ramadi, "further support the benefit of Mr. Abadi, the Iraqi government."
Carter pointed out that this creates for the Iraqi government "opportunities for further efforts", in parallel with the increase of the coalition military efforts, according to what has been agreed in Paris. He focused the Paris meeting to take advantage of the "Undo" jihadists organization of the Islamic state and to work on the hit "centers of influence" in tenderness and Mosul.
MYSTERY SURROUNDS THE IRAQI POSITION ON THE DEPLOYMENT OF US TROOPS TO SECURE THE BORDER WITH SYRIA
Long-Presse / Baghdad
Expects that the US deployment of "special forces" near the Iraqi-Syrian border in preparation for battle retrieval of Mosul "Daash".
The new troops will come from Kuwait and will work on the separation of "Daash Iraq" from the other in Syria, according to the parliamentary committee for security and defense.
Furthermore, it does not exclude the parties in opposition to the National Alliance of the United States, and hinting to the possibility of using "force" against any foreign military presence in Iraq.
And speak other parties in the National Alliance for the existence of "quasi-consensus" within the Shiite bloc to reject Western interference in the country without government approval.
Despite the rejection that reported by the Prime Minister for the deployment of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil, but mystery still surrounds the official Iraqi position about the American officials statements.
Constipation border with Syria
In turn, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said Friday that the coalition led by the United States to fight "Daash" restore the cities of Mosul and tenderness, and that he will use "ground forces" in the framework of Strutijeth to achieve this.
He said Carter, who was speaking in Davos, Switzerland, "we must eliminate them in two places and I would like to make progress in this regard as soon as possible."
He said the coalition raids and bombs used to control the roads between the two cities and cutting off communications between them. "Of course this will separate the Iraqi theater of the Syrian theater."
Carter said he will be sending more ground troops likely to support the existing forces there but also part of a strategy to mobilize local forces "and not try to solve them.
For his part, says Mohammed al-Karbouli, a member of the parliamentary security committee, said that "liberalization of Mosul need to cut supplies coming from the Syrian tenderness controlled by Daash".
It is likely Karbouli, in connection with the (range), that "the US 101 Airborne Division in that task."
The 101st one of the elite units of the US military, and specializes in the use of helicopters to carry out offensive operations. Band phones, described as an atmosphere of more American teams and a number of 16 thousand troops and 270 Apache attack helicopters and Black Hawk helicopters and Chinook helicopters and contributed to the Kuwait war in 1991 and the Iraq war in 2003.
In late 2015 quoted (Army Times) American military, for military leaders as saying that "the headquarters of Task Force 101 in Kentucky will move to Kuwait, to lead combat missions and operations training and consulting Iraqi security forces during the battles for nine months."
Gen. Gary Viluxa, the division commander, confirmed that "the primary concern for the past three months was the study of the situation in Iraq." He pointed out that "the band mission in Iraq will start with the beginning of next year."
The Iraqi government, in turn confirmed a month ago that any deployment of foreign troops on Iraqi soil needs to coordinate with them. He said al-Abadi deploy troops without the consent of his government "is hostile."
But Karbouli says that "the government agreed to the international coalition, and the new force will be part of that alliance," adding that "the new forces are not wild in the conventional sense, but rather the quality of forces will have a special mission."
The president of the parliamentary bloc solution rejected the deployment of US forces Iraq to fight Daash that he "would be an incorrect decision." Karbouli says that "American power will provide free of weapons and control of the border 24 hours, with Iraq desperately needs so he was facing a financial crisis."
Member of the Commission on Security asserts that "Daash still fighting fiercely in Anbar and Salahuddin, despite victories in Ramadi and Tikrit," stressing that "Iraq needs US intervention to resolve the battles there and reduce the loss of local forces."
He says a member of the Union forces, the most prominent Sunni blocs, "The United States is responsible for the chaos in Iraq and the correct mistakes," but he corrects saying "Anscheran for a new occupation, but they are created from the problems and addressed them."
Liberal: Snquaomanm again
In parallel confirms Deputy for the Sadrist movement that "resistance factions would expel US forces as it did previously unknown, if entered in spite of the government."
The MP Mazen Mezni, a member of the Liberal bloc in an interview (range), that "the deployment of Western troops in Iraq would be a steal for victories popular crowd."
Mezni added that "the Iraqi forces and the crowd does not need foreign troops, especially as it has its own editing a number of cities."
On the other hand confirms the Liberal bloc member that "the National Alliance agreed almost entirely to reject the deployment of foreign troops, and that the head of government is part of that alliance."
He called the Sadrist bloc member US forces to "refrain from interfering in the affairs of Iraq," pointing out that "Iraq does not need even Astbartah to information from Washington and have to leave us and leave."
The cleric Moqtada al-Sadr suspended, the end of 2015, on news the deployment of US forces in Iraq as "rejects any kind of interference, whether land or air or even freely."
Citizen: accept conditions
On the other hand says MP Habib Terminal, a spokesman for the citizen's parliamentary bloc, said that "there is an agreement between the government and all political forces to reject any interference RSVP without government approval."
And confirms Terminal, through a statement with the (range), that "the government does not yet apply to the deployment of US forces in Iraq." But he said, "would be in favor of the citizen block any effort in supporting Iraq fighter Daash condition the government's approval."
Terminal ruled out that the United States of meddling in Iraq without the approval of his government, expecting that "the United States would not violate the security agreement signed between the two countries."
One more item today:
Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe their success is in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing.
Remember too to pray to the princess of peace – Our Blessed Virgin Mary. She has the ear of Christ and she can intercede in heaven and bring us the peace we all desire here on earth. We can not do it alone. I believe that if we all make this our daily prayer you will see change. It is already working even in the short time since I have been publishing this prayer section. It does not matter what religion you believe, if you pray then to your oven beliefs entity it is still the same powers and good for all of mankind. Ultimately it is all the same God anyhow.
“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and Coalition Soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be Victorious against them! We ask that the Victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin!
We pray for the process of the currency reform, the full implementation of the Iraqi economy to full international status and the bringing of prosperity and wealth to its people“ Amen!
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,