UU6862 – “While We Wait for Iraq’s Next Move”
This ongoing RV process is like one big saga, something like sitting down and playing a nice long game of chess. Who will make the next move? What will the move be? Can you predict it?
Back in late October of 2015 I told you Iraq was about to make a major move of some kind in the currency reform process. I said this because all indications were showing us this was the case and all looked very good. Then we heard nothing but great news for almost a month. Then just as we got the good news came, they clammed up just as quickly. Our heads were spinning as we asked “what was that all about”…..lol…lol.
Then in late November we were disappointed when they told us they were “postponing” the launching of the 50k notes. Since they already previously told us these 50k notes were meant to “pave the way for the project to delete the zeros” we assumed they were very close to a major shift in currency reform. They told us they would be launched in early December.
So “here we sit broken hearted, thought we were going to exchange but it never started”…..lol…lol…
Then in late December they confirmed to us all these needed laws that remained and their priorities. They were setting us up for the next parliamentary session in 2016 that would begin soon. These articles confirmed so much to us. They gave us priorities and a sequence as to how they would mover forward and handle all these much needed laws. But no real timeframes. It appeared they would move very aggressively when they came back into session on Jan 19th.
Then in early January the IMF published their version of a news media MOU explaining what they were doing with Iraq in many aspects. We witnessed agreements were made concerning removing of all barriers to going global with the Iraqi currency. Most importantly dates were given and seemed to migrate towards February targets. But in reviewing these goals and referencing back to older articles, we can see that many of these goals were in fact already accomplished all but one. This was the necessity to standardize the dinar rate inside Iraq – market rate, auction rate (used in global trade), street rate and rate in Kurdistan. We were not surprised to read this since Parliamentary Finance member Tamini had been telling us this already for months in articles it was a major problem and one they needed to resolve. Now we read it was also the IMF telling them the same.
So recently there has been much news but no more major “chess moves” on the part of Iraq, at least the onese we watch and hope for. We still wait for their next move and I fully believe it is going to be BIG when it happens.
Am I saying this event(s) is going to be the RV?
NO- but it could as anything is possible at this point. However if you want my personal opinion I would have to say NO. We are looking more at some event in dealing with ISIS (start of the battle for Mosul) and/or the passing of some of the more significant new laws we wait for or perhaps more news of WTO and IMF actions upon Iraq.
Today is Wednesday January 27th 2016 and just 4 more days remaining in January.
Parliament is now in session over a week already and we have not yet seen much on the needed laws we have been waiting for.
Earlier this week we heard confirmation that the Amnesty law is agreed upon by all and ready for a final vote. Will they vote on it soon?
The 2016 budget has also been passed, ratified and in the gazette. It is now open for spending allocations, but no RV(as I said it is NOT any indicator of the RV anyhow, it was not in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and it is not in 2016).
The problem of a huge deficit for 2016 still lingers as Abadi and parliament try to find ways to fill the gap. Now recent news that they are at least considering under study of increasing the value of the currency as an alternative solution.
Update: Needed Laws
NASSIF CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A FULL AGREEMENT TO PASS A GENERALAMNESTY LAW
Special - scales News
He confirmed a member of the House of Representatives for high Nassif, on Thursday the National Alliance, there is full agreement to pass the amnesty law in the new legislative term, indicating that there is a partial agreement on the Federal Court Act.
Nassif said, L / scales News /, that "there is complete agreement between the political forces in the House of Representatives on the amnesty law," noting that "this law possible to pass in the new legislative term."
She added that "there are some partial agreements on the Federal Court Act in order to also passed in the current legislative term," pointing to "the need to amend the election law and amend the law of parties, which did not emanate to figure out where you this, O Party, which may not reach some kind of consensus between the Political forces".
The House of Representatives last Tuesday for its first session of the second legislative term to Thursday.
We still await word on all the other needed laws.
Update: Currency Reforms
So I bring the article below which I believe is a very good summary of just where Iraq is now in their economy. Seems they know the problem with the economy but do not have the solution. The interesting part of the article is that this is the third time already we are hearing about the study underway of increasing the value of the dinar as an alternative to bridging the gap in the deficit. Sorry for the bad translation.
PARLIAMENTARY ECONOMY: CENTRAL BANK HOSTED BY THE PARLIAMENT SOON
BAGHDAD / News Network Iraq confirmed member of the Committee of Economy and parliamentary investment, that "the support of the Iraqi dinar and maintain the stability of its price against the dollar should not affect the reserve Iraq of hard currency", noting, "The committee will be directed inquiries on reserve Iraq of foreign currency and the way the central bank deal with this issue. "She committee member, Najiba Najib, Monday:" Parliament in the process of hosting the Central Bank after the resumption of its meetings to discuss the bank's actions towards the economic crisis experienced by Iraq, "pointing out that" Iraq is facing a financial crisis due to the sharp decline oil, in terms of financial budget for this year with a total expenditure of more than 105 trillion deficit accounted for 22.8%, and total revenues reached the 81 trillion and 700 billion dinars. "
THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO RECONSIDER MONETARY POLICY TO COPE WITH THE CRISIS
BAGHDAD / JD /
The parliamentary finance committee revealed the intention of Parliament to discuss its proposal by the Government to reconsider monetary policy in Iraq to counter the financial crisis.
The decision of the Committee MP Ahmad Haji told / KD / The committee has prepared a set of proposals to address the threats to the country, including the financial crisis the government to reconsider the monetary policy of the country, noting that the House of Representatives after the end of the parliaments of the Islamic countries conference will discuss this proposal for submission to the Government.
He added that the Finance Committee and some of the relevant committees in the House of Representatives will hold a meeting with the officials in the government, especially Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Planning and economic advisers and experts TO DISCUSS A NUMBER OF PROPOSALS TO ADDRESS THE FINANCIAL CRISIS.
Iraq has suffered from a major financial crisis because of falling oil prices to its lowest level since the Iraqi federal budget by 93% dependent on oil revenues, the Iraqi economy will inevitably be affected by oil prices.
Update: Abadi’s Ongoing Reform Program
Don’t know if you remember the package of reforms Abadi’s cabinet submitted to parliament for legislative process reforms. This was his first round of reforms for the new year. I included information on this in my recent news letters a week ago.
Looks like now another round of Abadi reforms coming up. I am not sure if I like the decision for replacement of finance minister Hoshyar Zebarai. There has to be a politica reason and so let’s see what the future news will tell us. Be on the lookout for it. Could it be he was not going along with the currency reform process?
Most of what Abadi is doing on this second round of 2016 reforms seems to be to save money on salaries. Looks like he is eliminated altogether three ministers by combining or eliminating them. We all know this is well overdue since there are way too many fat cats in that government that literally do almost nothing and get paid very well.
Recently we also heard news of the 28 abandoned presidential palaces from Saddam Hussein’s government era. These are property of the Republic of Iraq. They told us these are now being occupied by some government officials including one for Maliki and among others Iyad Allawi and Osama Najafi and Transport Minister Baqir Jabr. They still retain Palace each one of them.
They now have a file from this investigation in the Parliamentary Finance Committee for Real Estate of the state, including presidential palaces under investigation. It shows that there are some irregularities in the occupation of these buildings and that some titles for them have been transferred to some politicians through fraud and forgery. It is hoped that the presentation of the results of these investigations very soon.
In this regard, said the parliamentary finance committee member Majda al-Tamimi in an interview with Baghdadi News , "The Real Estate State file to finish and will display the results of investigations which show the extent of corruption and fraud in this file, including the presidential palaces file and will be displayed in front of the media Over the next few days.
These palaces are huge extravagant buildings. I might add that Abadi hopes to turn these palaces into museums to attract tourism in the future as part of the diversification process. So is the point of the investigation of the status of them.
My opinion – Abadi wants Maliki out of the palace since he still at times represents himself as a VP. So once again, Abadi is using the tactic of not singling out any one individual since many others too will have to move out of the palaces they also occupy. It will be interesting to see how this all works out. This is part of the power struggle going on and abatement of corruption.
ABADI REVEALS A FORTHCOMING RESHUFFLE IN HIS GOVERNMENT
IRAQ NEWS AGENCY (INA)
Written by INA Date: 01/25/2016
Baghdad - INA / detect Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi Nan an intention to reshuffle prospective in his government.
He stressed Abadi during a meeting this evening a group of media analysts and politicians, that "are untrue to be traded from the feminine to the government but also there is a cabinet reshuffle."
The press sources she noted earlier this month to some leaks about cabinet reshuffle prospective government, Haider al-Abadi, including pay and Education Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, to the post of Foreign Minister instead of Ibrahim al-Jaafari, and the REPLACEMENT OF FINANCE MINISTER HOSHYAR ZEBARI, Deputy former Prime Minister [Almrhq Rose Nuri Bhawess.
She added, "are also changing the interior minister Mohammed Ghabban Prime mass Badr parliamentary Qassim al-Araji, with the integration of the Ministry of Electricity with Oil in one ministry, the Ministry of Transport with the Ministry of Communications to take over Hassan Rashed this position and assume Bloc solution Chairman Mohammed al-Karbouli the position of the Ministry of Commerce, and the abolition of the Ministry of Youth, Sports and turn it into a body after the transfer of powers to the provinces.
Update: Restructuring the Iraqi Economy
In my last news letter I brought you news of the necessity for Iraq to coordinate with the WTO and to reform the Iraqi banking system. Then we hear news of Prime Abadi on Wednesday participating in the Davos World Economic Summit in Switzerland and later meeting with the WTO president Jim Yong Kim.
What do you think this meeting was all about?
Many suggested to me the meeting between PM Abadi and Mr Kim was about Abadi trying to convince Mr Kim that they are ready to RV and to allow them to do it. The fact is the situation was just the opposite. According to those near the meeting, they respectfully told us that it was the WTO president Mr Kim and not PM Abadi who was encouraging strongly that Iraq is ready to RV. It was Mr. Kim who initiated the meeting and took PM Abadi aside. Mr Kim also wanted to know the progress of the other events in coordination with future WTO actions. Abadi has to brief him on this situation.
I quote from the article below – “"the Prime Minister met today, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and his entourage, were discussed during the meeting of the World Bank for Iraq SUPPORT EXPERTISE AND SIMPLIFICATION OF PROCEDURES AND ASSISTANCE FOR THE REFORM OF THE BANKING SYSTEM”.
I need everyone to wake up and take off your blinders as to what is going on here. Based on this new information we can see it is Iraq that is willfully holding back the RV. Why are they doing this. I discussed the many reasons in my recent news letters. I will not review this all again today. But my point now is that Iraq is stalling and holding back the RV. Yes- it could be that the CBI is the main culprit but it gets complicated real fast.
ABADI MEET WITH WORLD BANK PRESIDENT IN DAVOS ON THE SIDELINES OF THEWORLD ECONOMIC
Information / BAGHDAD / ..He met with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Thursday, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.
Ebadi said Office in a statement received by the agency / information / copy of it, "the Prime Minister met today, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and his entourage, were discussed during the meeting of the World Bank for Iraq support expertise and simplification of procedures and assistance for the reform of the banking system and provide expertise resources management water. "
The statement added that it "has been discussed participation of the World Bank experts in workshops and help reform the provinces to complete the transfer of powers in addition to their support for the reforms carried out by al-Abadi."
For his part, World Bank President stressed that "Iraq's success is important to the whole world and they are ready for all that Iraq needs support in the experience."
I like this next article titled “urgent Iraq stands ready to cut oil production “ (see article below) because it is telling us so much. To me it was one of these WOW articles.
It is short but packed with information. Finally OPEC is making moves to adjust the price of oil. Remember it was just in late 2015 when Iraq told us not to worry about their economic situation and meeting the forecasted 2016 budget as they said “we will just pump and sell more oil”. This was their reaction to their deficit. Now it seems they have changed their minds. Why? Let me explain.
So whether you believe the price of oil was intentionally dropped (manipulated) for whatever reason, we can now maybe see that this policy (period) may be in a reversal cycle and to be over soon. Why did oil have to drop in price? I explained this in my previous news letter and will not go over it again here. Please refer to it.
But remember as I told you that when oil is cheap they stockpile it and so the price adjustment will take months maybe more since they will have to first use up their stockpiles once the supply is lowered and prices begin to jump. They when they begin to order more to re-supply inventory then demand will suddenly shoot up and so will prices. Watch and see how this all plays out in February.
Why is all this so important?
I am not an economist and do not profess to be one but I do know something about this oil industry. I also know the factors effecting the situation in Iraq as far as currency reform. I keep telling you that you can not pin point Iraq RV to any one single event so stop trying to do it. The RV is a culmination of events that will present a favorable situation for Iraq when eventually they can RV. Let’s put some of these events down on paper again.
-clean up ISIS and DAASH from Mosul (final phase to rid ISIS from Iraq) no indications this battle has begun
-tighten/lock down Iraqi boarders with Syria and Iran
-by this time Iraq must be ready to ascend fully into the WTO and rollout their new currency to global exchanges (new banking laws, anti-corruption, anti- money laundering, etc…)
-market oil prices would have adjusted back to $50-60 a barrel (at least $45 to meet 2016 budget)
-pass all needed legislation including General Amnesty, National Guard, Judicial law, HCL, etc..
-implement fully National Guard and anti terrorist laws (already in the making).
Many of you readers may now be saying that Mnt Goat is a crazy woman. You may be thinking all of these events will take sooo much time. But once again I assure you there is a plan and it includes all of these events. The target is now still late Feb to early March 2016. Could it be extended? Maybe but we don’t know that yet because they have not told us yet. I will let you know if and when they adjust it. Have you ever worked as a project manager? When you manage people you never give them a far out date because they will always manage to use whatever time you give them. Instead what you do is first realize a very realistic timeline, then back if off so as to push the window. They if you must extend it you come right on the original (unpublished) timeline and you meet the target. In the eyes of your employees the target is already passed but they don’t know the real target was always extended out into the future anyhow. So if you planned to win you will win but if you planned to be on the actual target you will more often lose than win. GET IT?
We do know that every month that ticks by there is more and more pressure exerted on Iraq. But as I said before, for example, that with the needed laws, there are still opponents to them and they are fighting to prevent real progress for Iraq. These are the Iranian backed Maliki goons. These are variable hard to control.
The plan is all about physical and financial security. It always has been about these two issues. Again I say why would they unleash all this wealth for Iraq to be used by terrorists organizations for their purpose to wage war on the coalition forces fighting ISIS when, we all know that the initial purpose of the 2003 sanctions was to cut of the money supply from the terrorists. So let us use some common sense and stop trying to override the truths of the situation just because you want the RV sooner. Your irrational thinking is not going to get the RV any sooner. In fact it will only cause you more pain and undue stress in the long run.
When these two objectives are met according to plan they will pop out the lower denominations and the reform process will continue on track, as I have described to you in the past.
URGENT IRAQ STANDS READY TO CUT OIL PRODUCTION
A senior official in the Iraqi Oil Ministry said Iraq was ready to understanding with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut its oil production in order to contribute to stop the decline in crude prices, which ranged at $ 30 a barrel.
The production of Iraq's current 3.7 million barrels per day this year and hopes to reach 4.5 million
I want to reemphasize again how bad some of the people are in this investment. I want to take this recent incident as an example and show you just how dumb and stupid some can be. I don’t mind it if you stay in that regard and keep it to yourself. But when you come on to the forums and spread your foolishness then it becomes everyone else’s business.
So some person and I do mean person resurfaced an old article on many of the forums. The person did not search or even bother to really read the article carefully. Instead he/she was looking for something negative and thought they found it. Seems their glass is half empty and not half full.
The title of the article is “Iraq seeks to enter global economy via WTO”. The person who resurfaced this article assumed this was a current article. The last paragraph of the article makes reference for Iraq to have wait until a “mid-December meeting of the WTO’s governing body” to review their application to join the WTO.
Based on this knowledge this person then began spreading rumors that it will be sooo long for Iraq to join the WTO and so with it hysteria breaks out in many of these forums. All of a sudden all the good information put forward recently on the IMF to help everyone i.e. IMF SMP and their MOU with Iraq just got thrown out the window as bogus news. Really? Do you really believe this?
The article you presented to thousands upon thousands of people was an article from a 2004 article when Iraq was first applying to join the WTO. Oh – so sorry! Sorry is not enough. Since 2004 we have had countless articles telling us of their progress in the WTO and so far we know that the movement is all positive and all that really remains is to fix a few outstanding issues and they will soon move and be allowed to rollout their currency and get back online to the global exchanges. It is all very positive news.
All I can say more to help you is, if you are a newbie in this investment take a seat, sit down, relax, shut up and listen to what those that have been studying this investment for a very long time. Rome was not built in a day! Don’t attempt to be a self proclaimed “intel guru” overnight. I have been in this investment for 10 years now and I have to say I still don’t know it all and often get confused. But at least I am smart enough to read the heading on an article and know that it was 11 years old.
Should you buy Iranian Rial?
First let me say I am not a financial advisor or attorney of any kind. I am just an investor, like you, giving you my honest opinion from my research and current knowledge of the subject matter.
Second let me help most of you lost sheep in this area of concern. The answer to the question in the title of this section is a big fat NO! Be prepared to read sarcasm that follows since this is very touchy subject in my eyes. Are you an Iraqi veteran? Did you see the horrors of war? Do you understand fully what horrors Iranian leadership has brought to this world? There is no other nation that is so closely aligned with the devil Satan Lucifer on this planet. Let me explain.
As I have told you in the past that Iran is still a sanctioned country and is still very much on the terrorists list. I will be the first to run to invest in their country once I know they are no longer supporting terrorism. Heck they are the haven for terrorism. Just as the Iraqi’s own prime minister Nori al-Maliki has everyone fooled so too Iraq plays the same game. Yes- Satan is very clever.
Sorry ! It may take many, many years, if even ever, to come fully out of their sanctions. I believe the government will be changed first prior to this happening. I do not see the currency government ever peacefully changing their attitude about how they see to manipulate the west using terrorism. So you are going to have a very long wait for any significant increase in the Iranian Rial value. Sorry again!
Be careful there are many layers of sanctions put on Iran and the Iranian propaganda is very good. They look at you as simple minded, dumbed, unknowing currency investors. They have their little sharks out there who are telling you that there are now new RV rates on the bank screens for Iran too. Really? Also in recent articles a little knowledge usually hurts you since you do not read carefully or understand who the source of the information is.
Iran is now on a huge misinformation campaign with the west to try to sucker you into buying their currency. By the way- What happens when you buy Irain Rial?
What you are doing is funding terrorists. Did you know that? Funny how you only think about the potential to fill you pockets. Such greed is prevalent and will haunt you. There is a reason Iran is still on the terrorist nation list. When you are personally involved or one of your loved ones are involved in a terrorist incident only then you will understand fully what you are doing. Is this what you want? Do you have to learn the hard way? You bash the terrorists and say you support anti-terrorists measures in the world to make it safer, yet you fund terrorists by buying Iranian Rial? Am I missing something here?
Many of you are purchasing Rial because you read everyday that sanctions are lifted, banks are now dealing with Iran, shipments of goods are entering their ports, etc, etc. and this is all very real. But the real truth, the entire truth is they have been under sanctions since 2003 for over 10 years. They are still sanctions. This money from YOUR Rial investment goes right back into Iraq to support the Iranian Kud militia forces. These are the same forces causing a security threat holding back the Iraqi RV. Get it? You say you want Maliki gone? This money from YOUR Rial investment goes right back into Iraq to support Maliki and is goons. Get it?
The nuclear sanctions only deepens their crisis. Do you want nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists? So yes- some of the sanctions have been lifted and enough to allow them to trade again internationally. I think it was out of pity and humanity more than anything else that these sanctions were lifted. People were starving in Iran. Remember their currency was never shut off like Iraq. It was downgraded. If a war ever breaks out with Iran is will be shut off and I can assure you of this. They will become a closed economy like Iraq. We still do not know what the overall plan is for Syria and Iran once Iraq is safe and the coalition military bases are established there. For sure what coalition forces and military establishments taking place in Iraq goes way beyond what is necessary to fight ISIS and DAASH in the long run. There is much more happening than what meets the eye and you are hearing on your news media channels I can assure you.
So far billions have been reported invested in the “pending” RV of the Iranian currency. I laugh (cry) at the extent of the stupidity. Believe me you are not going to make money any faster investing in Iran as you would Iraq. I have told everyone over and over again that the Iraqi currency is the ONLY sure bet. Everything else is pure speculation and a long shot. I am not a financial advisor and these are only my opinions so take it or leave it. Do your own research and find out for yourselves. Stop listening to these so called intel “gurus”.
As of today this has NOT changed. Under these conditions any USA citizen is NOT allowed to posses Iranian currency…..PERIOD! Nothing else to discuss today.
Update: Fighting ISIS
Lots of misinformation now being put out that the battle for Mosul has begun. It has not I can assure you. So stop listening to these people who can’t back up with they tell you.
One more item today:
Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe their success is in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing.
Remember too to pray to the princess of peace – Our Blessed Virgin Mary. She has the ear of Christ and she can intercede in heaven and bring us the peace we all desire here on earth. We can not do it alone. I believe that if we all make this our daily prayer you will see change. It is already working even in the short time since I have been publishing this prayer section. It does not matter what religion you believe, if you pray then to your oven beliefs entity it is still the same powers and good for all of mankind. Ultimately it is all the same God anyhow.
“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and Coalition Soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be Victorious against them! We ask that the Victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin!
We pray for the process of the currency reform, the full implementation of the Iraqi economy to full international status and the bringing of prosperity and wealth to its people“ Amen!
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,