UU6863 – “On the Eve of Something BIG”
I am beginning my news letter today with some excellent news in a couple articles (see below).
Why is this such good news?
In my last news letter I talked about something really BIG was about to happen. So why do you think they had to have this meeting (see below) ? This was a meeting of all of Iraqi regions. The coming days will tell all.
Something BIG is about to happen!
Perhaps its trying to get unity agreement to support all the necessary remaining laws to fully implement these reforms?
THE START OF THE INFLUX OF LEADERS OF POLITICAL BLOCS TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IN PREPARATION FOR THE START OF THREE PRESIDENCIES
Special - scales News
We arrived at the presidential palace on Thursday, many of the leaders of political blocs to attend a meeting of the three presidencies convened by the President of the Republic in preparation for the start of the meeting.
A reporter / scales News / "Many of the leaders of the political blocs began arriving at the presidential palace in the Green Zone."
The correspondent added that "among the dignitaries who arrived Judiciary Chairman Medhat al-Mahmoud and head of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, the head of the renewal of Mahmoud al-Mashhadani and the Secretary General of the Islamic Party, Iyad al-Samarrai, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi."
He explained that "one of the other characters that have reached the palace head of the competencies and Education Minister Hussein al-Shahristani and MP for the rule of law Abbas al-Bayati and director of the Office of the Prime Minister Mahdi Keywords First Deputy Speaker of Parliament Hamoudi and others,
Next article - More pressure from the citizens to do something about the corruption and those involved.
accounting spoilers defined as those involved in corruptive practices of rigging the books and falsifying contracts for self profiteering.
I quote from the article –
“demanding real reform and tackle the financial crisis and accounting spoilers”.
What do they mean by “real” reform?
For me it means something the people can see and feel. Like more money in their pockets and noticeable difference in this life style and surroundings. They also want the politicians of the prior administration to pay with justice for putting them in the currency economic situation. I also thing financially they want to get paid for their government work as paying their salaries (or lack of) keeps popping up in so many articles. They want change!
DEMONSTRATIONS IN MAYSAN AND BASRA, BABYLON AND CALLS FOR ADDRESSING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND REAL REFORMS
Baghdad scales News
Was launched in the provinces of Babil and Maysan and Basra, on Friday, demonstrations demanding real reform and tackle the financial crisis and accounting spoilers.
He said reporters / scales News /, that he "join dozens of activists, citizens and civilian demonstrations in the provinces of Babil and Misan and Basra to demand real reform and tackle the financial crisis and accounting spoilers and other demands included the salaries of the staff is not compromised."
This Dozens of citizens, civilians and militants on Friday in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, demanding the government to stamp out corruption and lack of prejudice to staff salaries and approval of the death sentences.
Today is Friday January 29th 2016 and just 2 more days remaining in January. Oh – but I though all you intel “gurus” told us the RV was imminent. Really? That was back in December.
Parliament is now in session way over a week already and we have not yet seen much on the needed laws we have been waiting for.
Earlier this week we heard confirmation that the Amnesty law is agreed upon by all and ready for a final vote. Will they vote on it soon?
The 2016 budget has also been passed, ratified and in the gazette. It is now open for spending allocations, but no RV(as I said it is NOT any indicator of the RV anyhow, it was not in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and it is not in 2016).
The problem of a huge deficit for 2016 still lingers as Abadi and parliament try to find ways to fill the gap. Now recent news that they are at least considering under study of increasing the value of the currency as an alternative solution.
So not much has changed on the surface in all these areas.
Update: Currency Reforms
So I bring the article below which I believe is very informative. So let us look at why.
First we know that the CBI has told us in the recent past they intended to review using Taxes and Revaluing the currency (and other recommendations) as options to filling the deficit gap. Now they are telling us the have the situation under control and have decided on a plan. They are going to revel their solution to us in the “next few days”. WOW!
I quote from the article below –
" that the Central Bank of Iraq has taken a number of recommendations to review the work of banks lagging and is committed to literally central instructions for flexible policy to strengthen monetary and financial track and put it tracks true, stressing that the NEXT FEW DAYS will witness the start of this economic recommendations”.
I quote from the article below –
“It is said that the Iraqi Central Bank seeks to achieve economic stability through the promotion of confidence in Iraqi dinars, and work on price stability, and the fight against inflation, and the use of the mechanics of this policy, in cooperation with the fiscal policy in order to reach a state of economic balance”
I don’t want to weave a yarn but I are they about to do something with their currency to make it stronger?
CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ .. MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY SUCCESSFUL
Director General of the Department of release and cabinets in the Iraqi Central Bank Shomran Yasiri Ahsan said that the banking system in Iraq is still strong and recuperative but no liquidity problems at some banks and not exceeding Monday.
He pointed Yasiri told the "Journal" that the government banks and the central bank continues to meet the needs of the public of cash, and that community Iraq has full confidence in the central bank to be considered the oldest banking institution in Iraq and has a track record of bank credits and the sale of the national currency in a manner in harmony with the preservation its value against hard currencies.
Yasiri said that the problem faced by the Iraqi Central Bank and other government banks is that some men call politicians talk is irresponsible and without evidence supported and disseminated through social networking sites and circulated by some weak-minded people and media that are trying to prejudice the central action.
He said the central bank has an active and important role in shaping and determining the Iraqi monetary policy, said: "If no public confidence in the central bank to shift the purchase of goods to the dollar and not the national currency, Vdinar for citizen important Shi factor primarily in the purchase, sale and compactness."
Director General of the release circle and cabinets in the Central Bank of Iraq and stressed that the situation now is much better than a year ago, but there are confusing information and statements fallacy monetary and financial reality of the fact that the country is now undergoing a state of war against terrorism, gangs, and that the black gold market continues to fluctuate and has a direct impact on national economy, the fact that Iraq is supported on fiscal revenue from the sale of crude oil, and these and other breed in some individuals opponents the right to work the word is not accurate, hoping to improve the overall situation in all its details globally and locally for the better to strengthen Iraq's economic process.
He revealed Yasiri for "Il Giornale" that the Central Bank of Iraq has taken a number of recommendations to review the work of banks lagging and is committed to literally central instructions for flexible policy to strengthen monetary and financial track and put it tracks true, stressing that the next few days will witness the start of this economic recommendations.
For his part, economic adviser in the Prime Minister Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge confirmed in an interview with "Il Giornale" The Iraqi citizen has full confidence in government bank transactions and the Central Bank of Iraq to open bank accounts and credit led to the lifting shares of the citizen, it is not inconceivable that many citizens are losing confidence transactions banks government.
Anbuge between that at present appear on the economic and financial arena in Iraq's remarks to highlight the work of the Iraqi Central Bank and the distortion generated realities on the ground and that these statements are inaccurate and did not built on sound economic data, because investors are looking for the right climate for investment, and the environment dominated stability political and security, economic, Economic Stability means to maintain the value of the national currency.
For his part, stressed the economist Mahmoud Mayali for "Journal" today that the central bank policy of the current supportive of the Iraqi dinar and made its price steady against hard currencies, Masahm in attracting investment, whether internal or external, calling for a solution to the political and security problems, to encourage investors to launch their investments inside Iraq.
It is said that the Iraqi Central Bank seeks to achieve economic stability through the promotion of confidence in Iraqi dinars, and work on price stability, and the fight against inflation, and the use of the mechanics of this policy, in cooperation with the fiscal policy in order to reach a state of economic balance
Update: Restructuring the Iraqi Economy
So we are about to see Iraq grow by leaps and bounds. However be patient since they still have to clear ISIS out of Mosul. But what about the rest of Iraq? They are not going to just sit back and idle in the rest of the regions while they plan out the last battle with ISIS in Mosul.
PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE: THE GOVERNMENT EXCEEDED THREE POINTS IN ORDER TO CROSS THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
Economy News / Baghdad
Finance Committee in the House of Representatives said that the government in three stages in order to overcome the insurmountable economic crisis the country is experiencing at the moment.
He said the Commission decision of Hama Rashid Ahmed said in an interview for "Economy News", the country is today living a worsening economic circumstances, so the government must overcome three steps in order to cross this crisis and must find solutions to them you do not stand by and watch them.
And between Rashid that is first on the broad and clear economic strategy and, secondly, the elimination of corruption that plagued the country and wasting people's money, and thirdly the face of declining oil prices, which is that Iraq is not able to control it but possible to find alternatives.
He explained that the rational not to harm the government to attract qualified real empowered Iraqi There is nothing wrong to consult foreign experts, then the economic situation will improve through the development of practical solutions Vq not written pieces of paper and placed insert offices.
The next article is very good. The title is once again deceiving and you must read the entire article to understand what is being said and do not jump to conclusions that Kurdistan is going to break off from Iraq as an independent state. That is not what the author is saying.
What he is saying is the Kurds fully support an independent of Iraq and will do what it takes to help achieve it.
The article is about a political pep speech given by the president of the Kurdistan region to the Kurdistan people. He is describing the economic situation and why they are in such a situation. But the very good news, he tells the people, is they will resolve and come out of the crisis. He also points out that the government held a very important strategy meeting to find solutions.
I quote from the article below-
“It is said that the Ministry of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Regional Government, held Wednesday 01/27/2016 conference entitled "Reform and innovation strategy", the aim of finding a solution to the financial crisis, the presence of the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government and his deputy, and a number of ministers, as well as a number of foreign experts.”
So we see they are going to pop out solutions soon and personally I can not see them not pursuing the avenue of currency reform as a major objective to the solutions.
NECHIRVAN BARZANI: THE DAY WILL COME WHEN WE BECOME OWNERS OF AN INDEPENDENT STATE
|(Voice of Iraq) – Roudao Arbil -
Said President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, said the financial crisis is the biggest on the Kurdistan Region danger, declaring the application of fiscal austerity policy. He said Nechirvan Barzani, in a speech, at a conference the Ministry of Finance in the province of Kurdistan, said "The war with Daash and the entry of a large number of displaced people to make the region is facing a financial crisis the province of Kurdistan."
He continued, "The drop in oil prices befuddled a lot of our plans and the latest implementation of the government Alr.s.," explaining that "we missed a lot of opportunities that we could not make use of them in time appropriate."Heassured Nechirvan Barzani, that" reforms in the interest of everyone, "pointing to" the adoption of new financial reforms, including the export of gas as the Kurdistan Regional Government has provided ample opportunities for foreign capital."
He called countries of the world to provide financial support to the Kurdistan because the province crisis harder than fighting Daash, adding that he "would one day become the owners of an independent state" and that he will defeat Daash and stepping province of Kurdistan great strides.
He called on the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, citizens to hold out, adding that the application of fiscal austerity policy include the receipt of employees less than their salaries and savings the remaining part. He noted that "we are in the fronts front of the war on Daash and protect the 1.8 million displaced people in Baghdad does not help us in it," saying that the financial crisis is the biggest on the Kurdistan Region of risk. It is said that the Ministry of Finance and Economy in the Kurdistan Regional Government, held Wednesday 01/27/2016 conference entitled "Reform and innovation strategy", the aim of finding a solution to the financial crisis, the presence of the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government and his deputy, and a number of ministers, as well as a number of foreign experts.
I present these next couple article to you to show you that with any level of real solid stability (held back since June 2014 with the presence of ISIS) this country of Iraq is going to take off economically. Finally we also see a major effort to bring back reliable electricity to the provinces. Funny how years ago they installed all these ATM machines but many of them have never even been turned on as of yet. This effort alone will bring much peace to the people. Remember the government is no longer going to provide FREE electricity. The people and businesses will have to pay for it going forward (as a tax).
You see what they are doing is finding ways of new revenues but attempting to cycle back to the government (in the form of additional creative ways of revenues) some of this money the citizens are about to get from the HCL royalty payments once the price of oil goes back up. This was done by recommendations by the IMF and other financial experts.
Oh- but how can they perform economically without a currency reflecting their true value of the countries assets.? How can they compete on the global stage with a “closed economy”? How can they conduct trade in he future without a currency on the global exchanges?
BEACON MAKES IRAQ ONE OF THE LARGEST INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
The joy of pumice preparing the ministries of oil and industry agreement with the company Shell oil the world to implement the project «beacon» petrochemical in the province of Basra, which is the largest in the Middle East, as it is expected to achieve annual profits exceed one billion dollars, and provides more than 50 thousand jobs After the work done.
The official spokesman for the Oil Ministry, Assem Jihad, said in an exclusive statement »Sabah», the ministry support for plans to develop the oil industry and increase production, which will reflect positively on gas production, therefore, requires the establishment of projects for the petrochemical order to optimize the investment of oil and gas wealth in Iraq. As a result of the drop in oil prices in global markets and rents the Iraqi economy, Jihad pointed out that the Ministry of Oil permanent quest for the development of this vital sector in the country through investment in the petrochemical industry, which resulted in several agreements, project support, the most important project «beacon».
He explained the official spokesman said « was signed with Shell to establish a petrochemical plant and its accessories dubbed Project (beacon), which is scheduled to be held in the province of Basra », he returned him of important projects that have been agreed in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry and Minerals.
He said the project is in the planning and study by the company and needs to be nearly two years to complete its requirements and prepare for the next stages, and then will have to agree on direct and determine the period of time to implement the project in stages. In addition to project beacon, Jihad detect the presence of memoranda of understanding and other proposals with the companies «France's Total», and »Russia's Lukoil» for the establishment of factories for petrochemicals in the provinces of Basra and Dhi Qar, indicating it from a medium-term projects and need several years to complete it fully. He noted the official spokesman to the petrochemical industry on the development of the gas industry in Iraq, where the country had made considerable progress in gas investment projects through Basra Gas Company, which is to invest the associated gas for oil operations in the three oil fields, in addition to international companies that invest gas fields gas, as Iraq's production has now reached the gas to a million and a thousand standard cubic feet per day.
The present trends amid the efforts of the ministry to maximize fiscal revenues through increased refinery production to compensate for interruptions Baiji refinery, which it meets more than half of Iraq's need of oil derivatives, and add some production units for the development of production and improved, leading to the development of the oil industry in the country, according to Jihad.
INDUSTRY OPENS ASSEMBLE VOLVO TRUCKS IN BABYLON FACTORY 3000 TRUCK CARD ANNUALLY
ong-Presse / Babylon
Was opened by Minister of Industry and Minerals Mohammed Darraji, on Wednesday, assemble Volvo trucks in the automobile manufacturing plant factory, north of Babylon, and a production capacity of 3,000 annually truck, and as he emphasized that the project will provide 20% of the cost, surprised not to buy the state departments of products Ministry.
Said Darraji during the opening of the project and attended the (long-Presse) that "the ministry today achieved through the General Company for the automotive industry partnership strategy by choosing Volvo project compiling sizes different trucks to cars Alexandria manufacturing plant (55 km north of Babylon) 2,400 m area 2includes two lines Antegean annual production capacity of 3,000 truck, "pointing to" assemble the truck (head and VIN) in full in Iraq and manufacture all the accessories that cause the entire truck in Iraq (Alibda denial flap). "
He added edict "This project will provide 20% of the cost in the event of import trucks from the company as will be running workforce by 250 workers in the project which is run by a cadre of Iraqi specialist," noting that "step today will open a new step for the industry in Iraq and would fill a need the country of import from abroad in cooperation with the private sector. "
The Minister of Industry and Minerals that "our plan following the merger of companies is the production of batteries, tires and aspire to increase the productive capacity of our factories," expressing his "surprise at the government departments not to buy what is produced by the Ministry of Industry and Minerals."
The Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Iraq opened on Monday (3 March 2014), project assembling sedans in Alexandria factory, on an area of more than 30 thousand square meters at a cost of 50 billion dinars.
Baghdad has seen and the rest of the provinces over the past years, the entry of hundreds of thousands of imported cars of various origins, which cause the occurrence of a traffic Gorge momentum in several areas close to government institutions in particular.
IRAQ AWARDS "GE" A CONTRACT OF ONE BILLION DOLLARS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POWER PLANTS
The contract includes adding 700 MW to the national electricity network to be available for use with the summer Solutions.
Baghdad signed the company "General Electric", a partnership agreement with the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity in order to implement a comprehensive development of power stations plan. The move is aimed to meet the growing demand for electricity during the summer months. This plan includes a number of technical solutions and modernization projects that ensure the provision of the necessary energy resources with the addition of 700 MW to the national electricity network to be available for use with the summer Solutions.
And it will exceed the cost of contracts signed billion US dollars, and began to finance the first phase of the project estimated at US $ 328 million.
Musab a teacher said, a spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity: "We are committed to strengthening the infrastructure of the energy sector in order to keep up with the growing demand for electricity, especially at peak periods during the summer months, including the summer of 2016 and provide a 'plan to increase electricity generation in Iraq' a comprehensive set of solutions that enhance the productivity and efficiency of power plants affiliated to the ministry. The integrated approach that we adopt to raise the capacity of the national grid in order to support economic growth, by providing a stable supply of electricity to ensure the infrastructure and keep pace with the development of domestic demand.
And completed "GE" recently Shipping part of the materials for the implementation of projects within the gas stations sites in Iraq. And technical updates include conversion of heavy fuel oil which enhance productivity operations, in addition to the installation of parts and components solution, "the developer path for gas."
Should you buy Iranian Rial?
First let me say I am not a financial advisor or attorney of any kind. I am just an investor, like you, giving you my honest opinion from my research and current knowledge of the subject matter.
Second let me say it sicken my stomach to see so many people being lulled into purchasing the Iranian Rial inknowing what they are really getting themselves into. STOP FOLLOWING THE HERD AND THINK FOR YOURSELF!
So in my last news letter dated 1/27, I gave you many reasons as to why you should stay away from the Iranian Rial currency. Some of you will listen and some will be stubborn and get burned. Many have already purchased the currency not really knowing or understanding fully what they are doing.
You will be stuck with it for a very long time I can assure you. You think you are worried about when the Iraqi dinar will increase in value? Hold on to your hat because with the Iranian Rial you are in it for the VERY, VERY LONG haul !
Is Iran making progress? Yes- they have some conditions that qualified them to be relieved of SOME sanctions but let’s not put the horse before the cart. Let’s now hurry into this investment, just not yet. Let me tell you why.
From the aspects of buying and holding the paper currency, put aside all the unpatriotic reasons and the aspects as a citizen of the free world and the dealing with the violation of homeland security terrorism laws in the USA, you should know that the rate for the Iraqi Dinar is around 1,180 Dinars per US dollar. The Iranian Rial is 30,000 Rial per US Dollar. So you tell me which one has more value today? ….that is if you want to base it all on just pure economics and greed alone?
In my recent articles I reviewed will all my readers information about the problems Iraq is having in stabilizing to a consistent rate for the Dinar. I talked about differences between the market rate, currency auction rate, street rate and the rate used in Kurdistan. All these rates are different and the IMF is mandating that they all adjust to one common aligned rate. This is called adjusting away from MCP (multiple currency practices), which the IMF does not like in a country’s currency.
Remember in the January 12th published news brief on an MOU between the IMF and Iraq, the IMF mandated that Iraq remove all barriers precluding them from moving to an international tradable currency. This was great news to us investors. The MCP was one of those barriers. They gave them until the end of February to deal with this issue. In the past we read article after article from Tamini,of the Parliamentary financial committee, who has audited the countries currency practices and reported the issues back to the CBI and the Finance Ministry.
Why am I telling you all this?
I am telling you this because now the IMF is mandating that the MCP also be dealt with in Iran concerning the Rial. Sound familiar?
Iran has been dealing with the same issue. Even though the Iranian government wants to paint a rosy picture for all the investors, they are far from movement of the Rial to any significant increase in value. It will be a very long time until it moves the way many of you speculator, rookie currency investors expect.
You only expect a very large jump soon because once again you are listening to all these idiotic so called intel “gurus” who are filling you mind with gobbly goop once again. Of course we know what they have at stake an we know they are selling the currency. So go figure? Do you think they are going to be honest with you? They know your state of mind and they are going to play games with you.
I quote from a recent article (see below) on this subject matter –
“The official exchange rate, as set by the Central Bank of Iran, is approximately 30,000 rials to the dollar, but the black-market rate is closer to 36,000. The next step for Iran is to eliminate this dual system, says Rabii. "Now, the official policy of the central bank is to once again have a single rate after sanctions are lifted," he says. "In the first six months post-sanction, it wants to try to bring the two rates together:”
Remember also headings on article are deceiving and we have been burnt so many times already by only reading the article and not its full content. So the title of the article states “SANCTION REMOVAL UNVEILS IRAN CURRENCY HOPES”. Really?
What sanctions removed? What currency hopes?
I quote from the article again (if you bother to read it) –
“Iran has a diversified economy and is capable of exporting a wide category of goods, from steel, petrochemicals and fertilizers to pistachios, saffron and, of course, Persian rugs. However, market participants agree the rial's appreciation prospects are poor, and IT MIGHT EVEN FALL IN VALUE.”
I quote from the article again (if you bother to read it) –
“Ramin Rabii, chief executive officer at Turquoise Partners, believes it will take a few years before there is significant foreign direct investment in Iran, due to years of sanctions and local bureaucracy. "Demand for local currency from foreigners will not be that significant," he says. "There will be some demand, BUT NOT TO THE POINT THAT [IT CAN APPRECIATE] IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS OR YEARS”
I quote from the article again (if you bother to read it) –
“"There will be some demand, but not to the point that it can appreciate IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS OR YEARS." The drop in commodity prices is putting Iran's budget under pressure, despite its diversified economy, and IT MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE INTEREST OF THE GOVERNMENT TO DEVALUE THE RIAL, predicts Rabii.”
I quote from the article again (if you bother to read it) –
“but Rabii says this has been in the works for a while. "They have been talking about it for years – as long as I can remember," he says. "If you ask me how optimistic I am [about this happening] in the next year, I am very pessimistic. This is more of a longer-term trend. It's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE SHORT TERM"
Iran is now also on a huge misinformation campaign with the west to try to sucker you into buying their currency. I warned you about this propaganda too.
Now I want to cover another aspect in more detail. Remember all you investors who were skeptics and would write to me telling your opinions (in frustration) that Iraq will never be a peaceful nation. You based you opinion on assumptions of why the constant fighting between the Sunnis, the Kurds and the Sheites. But in complaining did you really try to look at who was causing most of the damage and why? Did you really understand what was going on behind the scenes with those constant street bombings, blowing up of mosques and other dirty acts of terrorism. Yes it was infact instigated by the Maliki government security forces and his private Iranian militias. Remember a united nation can not be broken. It will stand together and fight any foe. “United We Stand Divided We Fall” are not just patriotic words applicable to the USA on the forth of July. These are words of wisdom applicable to any nation that wants freedom. Iraq can overcome all obstacles just as many said Hitler was too strong to ever defeat, but the allies did it, just as the Iraqi people too will rise to the occasion and take back their country. They will finally unite and defeat all FOREIGN (Iran) and DOMESTIC enemies (Maliki and his goons, crocked Sheites).
Take back their country you ask? From whom you ask ISIS and DAASH?
When all is said and done with ISIS and DAASH you will find that they were the least of the problems for Iraq I can assure you. It is the ultimate defeat and the pushing out of the Iranian Kud forces out of Iraq once and for all that will be the ultimate challenge and obstacle to the Iraqi freedom.
Who supports and arms these Iranian forces in Iraq and how do they pay for it?
We know Maliki was funding their efforts in the past with Iraqi revenues. Now they rely on funding directly from Iran since Abadi has cut off all this corruption and Maliki is no longer in the driver seat to funnel money to them.
So now the big push by Iran is to sucker investors to flock to Iran and invest their money. Caution is needed, however, since where will this money be going? We know for a fact US dollars from any direct currency investment is flowing directly to support Kud forces in Iraq. This is a fact not rumor. Do you want to continue to support these forces or kick their little behinds out of Iraq so we can get going with the needed currency reforms needed in Iraq? So stop wining and complaining about the hold up of the IQD revaluation if you are part of the problem and not the solution.
SANCTION REMOVAL UNVEILS IRAN CURRENCY HOPES
Farah Khalique Published on: 1/28/16
Iran is emerging from the shadows to re-establish itself as a prime player in the Middle East. Moves are afoot to rid the country of its black-market exchange rate and develop a working currency forward market.
Iranians thought this day would never come – crippling economic sanctions have been lifted, Western countries are welcoming trade delegates from Tehran to talk business and president Hassan Rouhani is signing billion-dollar deals for Iran to buy jets and manufacture cars. The future looks brighter for Iran and has piqued the interest of international investors.
Switch on money tap
Dominic Bokor-Ingram, portfolio adviser at Charlemagne Capital, believes "a lot" of investment is going to flow into the country, as Iranian companies start spending once again on capital expenditure. "They have been starved of an export route, but Iran manufactures things the rest of the region needs," he says. "Now that they can export again, we will see companies investing – that will be a combination of foreign money and also domestic money." Charlemagne Capital has teamed up with Iranian investment firm Turquoise Partners to launch the Cyprus-domiciled Turquoise Variable Capital Investment Fund. Since its launch in mid-December, the fund has assets under management of around €48 million from European and UK investors and is up almost 14%, according to Bokor-Ingram. Sky-high yields are what makes Iran attractive to investors – even just depositing funds in an Iranian bank account can yield real returns of 20%, due to high interest rates. Bond yields are nudging 24%, says Bokor-Ingram, and a dedicated wealth manager can achieve returns of about 30%, says Emad Mostaque, strategist at emerging markets (EM) research consultancy Ecstrat.
The simple carry trade – borrowing in a currency with low interest rates such as US dollars and investing in higher yielding Iranian securities – works only as long as the exchange rate remains constant. Oil revenues account for around 10% of GDP. Renaissance Capital forecasts a total $54 billion of export receipts and capital inflows to Iran in 2016, and perhaps another $10 billion in 2017, which it predicts will counteract falling oil prices. It also reckons the 8% annual average target of the government’s 2016-21 five-year plan might be achievable. Mostaque predicts the Iranian rial will remain stable, in contrast to neighbouring oil-producing countries whose currencies have come under pressure as the price of oil plunges to new lows. Iran has a diversified economy and is capable of exporting a wide category of goods, from steel, petrochemicals and fertilizers to pistachios, saffron and, of course, Persian rugs. However, market participants agree the rial's appreciation prospects are poor, and it might even fall in value.
Ramin Rabii, chief executive officer at Turquoise Partners, believes it will take a few years before there is significant foreign direct investment in Iran, due to years of sanctions and local bureaucracy. "Demand for local currency from foreigners will not be that significant," he says. "There will be some demand, but not to the point that [it can appreciate] in the next few months or years." The drop in commodity prices is putting Iran's budget under pressure, despite its diversified economy, and it might even be in the interest of the government to devalue the rial, predicts Rabii.
Clean up exchange rate
Years of punishing sanctions put pressure on the rial, and led to a black-market exchange rate. The official exchange rate, as set by the Central Bank of Iran, is approximately 30,000 rials to the dollar, but the black-market rate is closer to 36,000. The next step for Iran is to eliminate this dual system, says Rabii. "Now, the official policy of the central bank is to once again have a single rate after sanctions are lifted," he says. "In the first six months post-sanction, [it wants to] try to bring the two rates together. Whether the official rate moves up or the free rate move down, nobody knows." Charlie Robertson, EM specialist at Renaissance Capital and head of the macro-strategy unit, estimates they could align at 32,000 to 33,000. Furthermore, there is talk of the central bank developing a currency forward market. A well-functioning derivatives market can have a stabilizing effect on a currency and attract foreign investors, but Rabii says this has been in the works for a while. "They have been talking about it for years – as long as I can remember," he says. "If you ask me how optimistic I am [about this happening] in the next year, I am very pessimistic. This is more of a longer-term trend. It's not going to happen in the short term"
Despite the country's recent progress, investors remain cautious on Iran for a multitude of reasons, says Hasnain Malik, head of frontier markets strategy for MENA and South Asia research at boutique investment bank Exotix. Exotix does not market Iranian securities to its clients. "US sanctions are still there – they are just suspended – and there are significant restrictions from the US institutional investor standpoint from either travelling to Iran or getting through the hurdles to invest in Iran," he says. The threat of Iran breaching the terms of its nuclear agreement and being hit with a "sanction snapback" is a concern. The upcoming US election adds to the uncertainty facing investors – a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump would almost certainly be a loss for US-Iranian relations. Furthermore, it is not yet possible to have sub-custodian arrangements in Iran. Investors have to make do with Iran's Central Securities Depository, but international investors are accustomed to dealing with the local branch of global custodian banks such as HSBC or State Street. It is unlikely there will be a sugar rush of international money flowing into Iran, but market participants estimate between $500 million to $2 billion of foreign money finding its way into Iran over the next year.
Update: Fighting ISIS
I bring you today an article finally openly telling about the USA “boots on the ground in Iraq”. The author of the article is desperately trying to mislead the readers. If it obvious he does not want any USA troops on the ground as he know this is the only way to defeat ISIS. Why does he speak out this way?
I will assure you the US forces now in Iraq have full support for the Abadi government and were ask to return to help with ISIS. A decision had been made that “boots on the ground” was the only way to clean up ISIS in the final push on Mosul. Of course many politicians will try to criticize and lecture the people in the media about not ever letting occupation forces on Iraq soil again. But these same people did nothing to speak out about the 25,000 ghost soldiers or the lack of training or discipline in the Iraqi army (so they can defend themselves). So you see these kind of words are meaningless and there will always be critics no matter how good intended are the acts of kindness and efforts for freedom.
I believe totally that a presence of the USA and coalition forces is needed in the Middle East and should stay as long as needed until the day these people can learn to live peacefully. Oh- living in peace means taking control of your governments and running governments against these would be tyrants. The people must be stronger and have enforceable penalties that apply to every level of politics. I am referring of course to Iraq and their long hesitation to deal with Maliki and his goons. I truly believe that once the laws are in place and enforced over time the examples of these past prosecutions of tyrants will set the example for future leaders to tote the line.
They must learn not to trust so much these individuals who make grand promises and can’t deliver. They must always find ways through their democratic process to ensure they can weed them out. We see this a still a problem in Lebanon, Syria, Iran and we almost witnessed a huge disaster in Iraq (if the USA did not have the control it had).
Remember the Maliki administration refused to sign a status of forces agreement in 2011 to continue US and coalition support for providing security in Iraq and so a pull out of ground forces resulted. Of course now we know the true reason why Maliki refused and we witnessed his pursuit for total control and dictatorship over Iraq in the coming years. He wanted the USA out of the way. His ultimate goal - disunity and fractionalization.
Remember “United We Stand Divided We Fall” are not just patriotic words applicable to the USA on the forth of July. These are words of wisdom applicable to any nation that wants freedom. Iraq is no different. Maliki knew this and so he knew he could never achieve his lofty goals of dictatorship if the people were united against their common enemy. Oh – a common enemy? This too is another tactic. If you can’t identify the enemy then who can you unite to fight against? This too was Maliki’s propaganda. Just who was the enemy? Who was causing all the problems in Iraq? I can go on and on but do you get my point?
So we see these Abadi reform laws sorting out all this mess left behind by Maliki. Abadi has been counseled very well on what to do. He must sort out the bad guys, and let the people come to know who their enemies really are. However he must do it in a way that the people come to see the truth and not by means of public rhetoric criticizing since it would then look like pure politics on Abadi’s part.
His job is kind of like Pearly Harbor and the Japanese bombing when the American public finally woke up to their common enemy. Not that the government did not already know what had to be done and who the enemy was. It was the act of convincing the people to get them united against one common enemy. It is all well and good to look in retrospect what happened in WWII and many of do not want to remember and think that human nature has changed so much. We convince ourselves that we are such a modern and humanitarian society. We say “surely this can’t ever happen in today’s world”. We are wrong, dead wrong. People back in the early 1940’s said the same thing. It is nothing new.
If you took a census you would probably find the majority of people really do not want war. These are the average citizens. They want to go to work, make money, raise families and live peacefully.
So who starts these war? Who has to then fight them?
Maybe its time all nations take a careful look at who they are putting in the seats of power and what is their true lofty goals while they have the power. This must be our constant vigilance. So when we say “freedom is not cheep and there is a price to pay for freedom” what does this really (or should mean).
I think perhaps we all got it backwards. What this should mean is to sacrifice lives and fill body bags is not a first resort, but rather a last resort. Our first priority and obligation to protecting freedom is a very strong vigilance over the selection process and later the controlling process of the leaders we select and give the sacred power to lead our nations.
Yes – Mnt Goat is on her soap box today preaching. I am doing this because these USA elections are going to be one of the most critical elections in a very long time. Literally the future fate of the USA rides on this next leader. Will you chose him/her wisely? Remember too this does not only apply to the presidential office but to congress, senate leaders and judicial judges too.
Remember these words “United We Stand Divided We Fall” are not just patriotic words applicable to the USA on the forth of July.
BAHAA AL-ARAJI REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF 30 THOUSAND US TROOPS IN IRAQ AND CONFIRMS: THE GOVERNMENT CAN NOT RESIST
BAGHDAD / Sky Press: a CE Revealed the former deputy prime minister, Bahaa al-Araji, Wednesday, for the presence of 30,000 US troops in Iraq, as he emphasized that the government could not resist the US administration.
They said in an interview I followed "Sky Press," that "there are large files overthrow Bechtel and the leaders of the parties want to postpone the elections," stressing that "the responsibility of everyone, without exception, with the same bearing part of that responsibility."
He added that "there are large files ousted Bechtel and leaders, but there is no real will to open it, such as oil and gas file and the purchase of weapons, which was investigated formally," stressing that "everyone knows where the files of corruption and that he will re-open again."
And on the US troops and the possibility of their participation in ground fighting al-Araji said, "he said the Iraqi government can not resist the will and the US soldiers who are in Iraq, body and arm them do not indicate that they were present only for their counseling and training."
He said al-Araji, that "there has been within the power of the US embassy and a small power base in the country, but today the more than 30,000 troops," noting that "in the eye of the lion base 17,000 troops, and the rest at the base of a country."
He continued, "While the F-16 came to Iraq came with a large force," pointing out that "the US and the defense minister said more than once to send troops to Iraq and 101 days the band replaced with another."
He stressed that "when you see the soldier who ascends to the next plane to Iraq you see carrying weapons body does not show that a coach or work in the Air Force, but a fighter on the ground," noting that he "did not participate so far I do not think they came away from the approval of the Iraqi government.
The movement accused the League of the Righteous, on Wednesday, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of giving into US pressure, particularly Mai_khas weakening the role of the popular crowd, calling on him to step down.
One more item today:
Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe their success is in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing.
Remember too to pray to the princess of peace – Our Blessed Virgin Mary. She has the ear of Christ and she can intercede in heaven and bring us the peace we all desire here on earth. We can not do it alone. I believe that if we all make this our daily prayer you will see change. It is already working even in the short time since I have been publishing this prayer section. It does not matter what religion you believe, if you pray then to your oven beliefs entity it is still the same powers and good for all of mankind. Ultimately it is all the same God anyhow.
“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and Coalition Soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be Victorious against them! We ask that the Victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin!
We pray for the process of the currency reform, the full implementation of the Iraqi economy to full international status and the bringing of prosperity and wealth to its people“ Amen!
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,