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Monday, April 11, 2016

Mountain Goat: UU6924 -- "Another Pivotal Week"

Edition: UU6924

Dated: April 11, 2016
Title: “Another Pivotal Week”


Hello Everyone,

I keep getting asked why is there this all out effort by Iraq and the international community to rid Iraq of corruption? Why now? Like I said it is not all about the RV of the dinar. The RV is by-product of all the efforts to stop corruption, bring more security to Iraq, fix the financial and banking systems, the necessity to go international, join the WTO etc… We only think it is all about this investment because we are investors and stand to make a huge gain when they do RV. Our egos work this way and we think it is thus all about us. I can assure you it is NOT all about us but about Iraq and a much greater investment of the PTB in that country.

The answer then to this question as I can conclude is many facetted:

1, The current economic crisis makes it almost imperative to take action now. The “fluff” and the golden days of the oil bubble are over at $100-120 a barrel when it was easier to hide money and falsify data to get it.

2, More auditing practices are now in place in the Abadi government making it clearly more difficult to hide corruption. Most of it is now being exposed even going back to the past Maliki admin.

2, Iraq is now in a better political position where reforms are able address the corruption. Do you think a corrupt government is going to expose it self? Now Iraq has a political environment conductive to handling the corruption and motivated to place in play new laws to prevent further future corruption.

3, Grantors of foreign loans, to help Iraq through its financial crisis, would be more resistant to giving loans without the reforms on corruption since where would their loans go? Would they only line the pockets of the politicians again and not go towards the people? i.e. IMF stipulating as an example that they will not loan money to Iraq without the mandated reforms on corruption. The USA also is not wanting to even give military aid without a hitch to implement the reforms.

4, Investors coming to Iraq need a SAFE political and financial environment to conduct business. We all know an international dinar is coming soon.

So here are the reasons I can conclude from the hundreds of articles I have read over recently and the last many years. Do you want to add any more reasons?

So how can anyone just say that another investor told them, who happens to be a banker,…because it is time to clean up the corruption and…there is no other reason why…because it is time to do it as a reason. Really? What? Can you be more specific? Do you know anything about what is really happening in Iraq to make such a statement? It is statements like this that really get my goat….lol…lol…

NO Hype, NO Rumors, just the FACTS.

Today’s News

Today is Monday April 11th 2016. YES- and still no RV. Sorry to all you “Charlies” out there declaring the RV is imminent every day (and believing it…lol…) now for over the past 5 years! Guess another weekend of stress and hype as pasted without an RV….sorry Charlie for your pain but you bring it upon yourself.

So let’s get real and dive into some concrete news from Iraq today. Let’s see if there is a realevidenced timeline for an RV coming soon.

Update: 45 Day Deadline for Technocratic Gov’t

I am still hearing that arguments and resistance to changing over the minister of Finance Zarabari. The USA is trying to force him to stay but Iraq wants a more experienced minister in the position. We wait to see what happens this week. They may just keep him for now as a proxy until the dust settles. Abadi is good at long term strategic thinking.

Over the weekend we heard that the National Coalition demanded the cancellation of theentire minister list submitted by Abadi last Thursday. Then the arguments began. Then shortly afterwards the 3 presidents declared a meeting with all the leaders of the political blocks. From this meeting they decided to allow more time time to submit their candidates since they did not take Abadi serious in this effort from the beginning and were reluctant to take any action of his mandate for a technocratic govt.

I showed you evidence of all these actions in my last couple news letters. So the saga to move towards a technocratic govt rages on….lol…lol…

So the recent news today is they will postpone the voting on the new cabinet until Thursday’s session of parliament. Seems they need a couple more days to allow the parties to submit their candidates and sort out this mess.

I quote from the article below – “MP for the coalition of Iraqi forces Abdel Azim Ajman, on Monday, that the House of Representatives will vote next Thursday”

I quote again from the article below – “ Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi on the new ministers put themselves political blocs to Abadi during the next two days, while the announced presence lingered merging ministries announced by Abadi decision. “. “adding that next (this) Wednesday will be the last date for the submission of candidates to Abadi blocs”.

Article Begins

IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT SESSION TUESDAY CAN THEY GO WITHOUT VOTING ON THE MINISTERIAL CABIN? 

[Oan- Baghdad]
Except for the parliament session , which is scheduled to be held next Tuesday from a paragraph vote on the ministerial agenda cabinet.

And it ends parliament deadline on Sunday after they identified 10 days at its meeting held on 31 last March to vote on the ministerial cabinet.

It includes Tuesday 's session agenda, according to the information department "vote on the draft of the Ministry of Electricity Law, and vote on the bill abolishing the unfair changes to the boundaries of the law Administrative provinces, districts and areas all. "

It also includes" vote on the draft law on ratification of economic and technical cooperation between the Government of the Republic of Iraq and the Government of the State of Kuwait cooperation Agreement Act, and the first reading of the draft of the Iraqi Union of parliamentarians Act. "

It would show" a report and discussion of the draft second amendment to the law of the Iraqi Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Law No. 43 of 1989 " on the agenda. The Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi reiterated today its commitment to provide the reshuffle to the House ofRepresentatives on time and showed all surprised by the announcement of the list of candidates also expressed surprise at the attack on the ministerial list presented to parliament , "he said . " The reshuffle small part of thereform. "

as parliament speaker Salim al - Jubouri said today that the committee recorded observations on the candidates ,"adding that he" does not Inigi the House of Representatives vote on the candidates to see their names only, "he warned at the same time" to jump on the timings to made ​​the government and parliament to the Iraqi people in the implementation of reforms. "

The display Jubouri four proposals to resolve the political dispute over the cabinet reshuffle , including submission of the political blocs to a technocratic candidates are entitled to the prime minister accepted or rejection.

Article Ends

Article Begins

THE START OF THE THREE PRESIDENCIES MEETING ATTENDED BY LEADERS OF POLITICAL BLOCS 

Special - balances News

According to an official source, Sunday, the start of the three presidencies meeting at the headquarters of the Presidency in the presence of leaders of political blocs.

The source told / balances News / The "three presidencies meeting was held in the presence of President Fuad Masum and Prime Minister Haidar al-Abbadi and Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri."

The source, who preferred not to be named, said: "The meeting was attended by:

-Minister of Foreign Affairs Chairman of the National Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari;
-head of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim;
-head of Independent Mass Education Minister Hussein al-Shahristani;
-Secretary General of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri ;
-Secretary General of the Virtue Party Hashem al-Hashemi;
-head of the united Osama Najafi
-president of the Arab bloc Saleh Mutlaq,
-leader of the coalition forces Jamal Karbouli

Article Ends

Article Begins

NEWS OF AL-SADR SEND "SECRET" LETTER FOR EBADI TO READ 

It revealed leaks, Monday, sending the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr a message "secret" to the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in order to move to declare the ministerial selection of independent "technocrats."

And picked local media the text of the letter, which has not been confirmed, which said, quoting al-Sadr, said that "will be forced to demand the withdrawal of confidence and the abolition of parliament and suspending the Constitution ... ..echtmha darling solution in your hand."

This means, explained that "Abadi, he replied:" I'm between your project and the demands of the political blocs that force me to stay in accordance with the maturity and the Constitution. "

Revealed channel "free Iraq," funded by the United States, Sunday, all the political blocs agree on the rejection of most of the candidates presented by the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to the House of Representatives for a vote on them instead of the present now, as revealed candidates blocs names to form a government of "technocrats" .

The news channel in the news, seen by "Sky Press," for parliamentary sources, say that the "new cabin includes:

Muhammad Ali Hakim, Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations, a candidate for foreign Fadel Abdul Nabi, finance is still ??
Khaled al-Samarrai Electricity
Mousa al-Moussawi, head of Baghdad University for higher education."

She added that "cabin includes Mustafa al-Hiti, planning and MP Abdul Kahar Samarrai, education, agriculture Laos Orfali," pointing out that it was agreed on the survival and the defense and interior ministers in their posts, "asserting that" the Kurds are determined to stay Faryad Roandzi Minister of Culture and deputies want to remain Mohammed Shia 'Al Sudani labor and social affairs. "

And held at the Peace Palace in Baghdad, on Sunday evening, the meeting of the three presidencies with the leaders of blocs and political parties, to discuss the document of national reform, seeking to determine the country out of the current crisis path, and deepen all the national forces of cooperation on the basis of the political process and constitutional Mrtkzadtha, while the presidency confirmed that The meeting discussed the formation of an advisory council to discuss the political upper strategies, as pointed out that the meeting discussed to ensure a safe and dignified return of displaced people and to begin reconstruction operations.

Article Ends

Article Begins

VOTE ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT FORMATION NEXT THURSDAY (DETAILS) 

MP for the coalition of Iraqi forces Abdel Azim Ajman, on Monday, that the House of Representatives will vote next Thursday in the presence of Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi on the new ministers put themselves political blocs to Ebadi during the next two days, while the announced presence lingered merging ministries announced by Abadi decision.

He Ajman in a press statement, that ' the political blocs agreed with the Prime Minister to retain ministerial representation as in the current government, through the provision of three candidates technocrats blocks each minister represented, while the prime minister to choose one of three candidates for each ministry and bring them to parliament to vote on them next Thursday. '

He added that ' the political blocs also agreed to postpone the decision of the Prime Minister on the integration of ministries announced by the House of Representatives,' noting that ' the new government formation will ensure that each political bloc ministerial representation in the current government, but that will be the new minister characterized as technocrats to run his ministry '.

He continued Healing the 'coalition of the Iraqi forces and the National Alliance finished Marchiham selection phase of the new government, while the Kurds has not been decided and the National Coalition candidates so far,' adding that 'next Wednesday will be the last date for the submission of candidates to Abadi blocs'

Article Ends

Update: Needed Laws

I quote from the recent article - “general amnesty law and the law of accountability and justice will be voted on them in the next upcoming parliamentary session , ” adding that “this vote will come within the parliamentary reforms.“ Federal Court….Amnesty…Debaaath Law All In 1 Basket Resolves In Parliament Reform Package.

Update: Currency Reform

I really, really liked the article I am presenting to you below. Please read the entire article. What is the CBI trying to tell us?

As I said many times, if you pay attention, you can pick up on subtleties in the news that will tell you they are still working on the currency reform behind the scenes. They know that they must someday soon move to the dinar for global payments abroad and away from using the USD. Keywords mentioned it twice in this article below that the use of the USD in global exchange (in particular the payment of salaries) is in violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

I quote from the article below – “expressed surprise at the salary payments to the dollar calls being an encroachment on the sovereignty”,

I quote from the article below – “of calls from some people, including politicians of using the dollar as the currency traded between foreign citizens mainly through the payment of salaries," he returned that "exceeded the sovereignty."

I quote from the article below – “ the bank "is working to keep the national currency, the Iraqi dinar which it is natural or neglect cornerstone," stressing the need to "strongly support".

So what else does this article tell us?

It is telling us that the CBI contracted with company (SPM) and (G YAG), Germany's specializing in hoc marking banknotes to print their currency and that the new currency will have “security tags for a number of Iraqi currency ten thousand dinars as a class”.(like the ten thousand dinar class)

So what the heck does this mean when they reference the “ten thousand dinars as a class”? Will they be printing more 3 zero notes….oh no!

Relax everyone. This article is NOT telling us they are going to print more 3 zero notes. In fact it is all very good news and is just what we might expect.

If you can remember way back months ago when Iraq issued a new 10 thousand dinar note. They did this because the 10 thousand dinar note was the most widely counterfeited note and thus they had to do something immediately even pre-RV since they were not yet ready to launch the lower denominations. They hired the same firms to do that work then. These same firms also developed the euro, as they are telling us.

I quote from the article below – “Iraqi dinar put those signs that are difficult to counterfeit being very complicated before they are placed on the euro,"

But what notes are they printing if not the 3 zero notes?

THINK!….THINK!…THINK!

BINGO – if you said a new class of lower denominations you are correct.

How do I know this with such certainty?

Because just less than 5 months ago the CBI came out and told us they are done with any more classes of the 3 zero notes. Do you remember the 50k (as they reference these too in the article) and the 100k notes. Remember they told us in February they cancelled the launching of the100k note. But just not the launching right now because they were not yet ready.

So back to what notes they are going to print. They are going to print new versions of the lower denominations since the ones recently shipped from the USA to the USA embassy are not good enough and subject to fraud and counterfeit. They are older notes printed before and during 2005.

Why did they ship them over to Iraq then?

They shipped them over because they belong to Iraq and Iraq requested them. They will burn them and issue a brand new currency with better security features and non-sectarian overtones. This is what the German firm has been contracted to do. Remember they also needed to get the Kurdistan region somehow on the currency. Thye told us this way back in 2011. All three tribes meaning the Kurds, Sunni and Sheites, need to be CLEARLY represented as well on the new currency.

Now lets go back to when they shipped them. As I said this was in the early winter months of 2015. Remember too when they were giving all this communication about moving forward with the project then to delete the 3 zeros. We wondered what happened?

Well now you know exactly what happened and why the project was stalled again. They made a strategic decision to print all brand new, more secure lower denominations prior to launching them. This will hold up the project to delete the 3 zeros but I am hearing they still plan to go ahead by mid year 2016.

So we wait and listen for any news of the delivery of these new notes to Iraq from Europe. I will snoop around and see if I can determine just who this GYAG German company is. I believe it may be Giesecke & Devrient (G&D) who is a German company headquartered in Munchen that ... specialized in high-quality printing, notably currency and securities printing. Trace the money production and maybe we can get a timeline on this launching of these newer notes. Let me see what I can do.

So do you see just how wonderful a simple article like this one can be and all it is telling us?

My best advice to you is READ THE ARTICLES if you want to get a timeframe as to when they plan to RV.

Article Begins

KEYWORDS: CAREFUL NOT RIGGING THE IRAQI CURRENCY AND SURPRISED DOLLAR PAYDAYS CALLS 

Long-Presse / Baghdad
The Governor of the Central Bank on the Keywords, on Monday, on the use of two companies Germanies to keep the banknote, and expressed his commitment to non-rigging Iraqi currency through the use of "complex" signs, as expressed surprise at the salary payments to the dollar calls being an encroachment on the sovereignty, assured German ambassador in Baghdad, Eckhard Preveza, that Iraq has a lot of ports that "help him cross the financial crisis."

He said on the Keywords in a speech during a workshop with my company (SPM) and (G YAG), Germany's hoc marking banknotes to protect them from fraud, which was held today at the Babylon Hotel in central Baghdad, and attended by, (long-Presse ), said that the central bank "aspires and strives to maintain the banknote through the use of the latest mechanisms and instruments adopted in the countries of the world," stressing that "our cooperation with the two companies is the best proof of the extent of our commitment to banknote the fact that these two known instances companies globally."

Keywords and added that "the bank will put a lot of tools in the Iraqi currency, which we are keen and strongly not to forge cooperation with friends in the specialized companies," noting that "from the central bank's tasks is to organize and progress monetary policy and we passed a lot of crises in this file."

In a related context Keywords expressed astonishment "of calls from some people, including politicians of using the dollar as the currency traded between foreign citizens mainly through the payment of salaries," he returned that "exceeded the sovereignty."

Keywords and stressed that the bank "is working to keep the national currency, the Iraqi dinar which it is natural or neglect cornerstone," stressing the need to "strongly support".

For his part, Vice President of the Board of Directors of the company (LG YAG) Thomas Stotr in a speech during the workshop, "The company is working with the central bank closely where excellence by helping to develop security tags for a number of Iraqi currency ten thousand dinars as a class."

Stotr explained that "the company has developed the signs and indications of security outweigh the located in the euro currency signs," pointing out that "the Iraqi dinar put those signs that are difficult to counterfeit being very complicated before they are placed on the euro," stressing at the same time, "We monitor continuously currency Iraqi Maatro them again. "

In turn, the German ambassador in Iraq, Eckhard Preveza feet in a speech during the conference, thanked "for Iraq to confidence in corporate Germany," adding that "Germany is seeking to support Iraq by urging specialized companies to work in Iraq, especially in the financial sector as has long sold out this work.".

Preveza and expressed his hope that "improving the economic situation in the world," stressing that "Iraq has a lot of ports that help him cross the financial crisis."

The Central Bank of Iraq announced on the 11th of November 2015, for the issuance of banknotes category (50) thousand dinars, and as pointed out that the new category is dominated by light brown with included a number of security and technical labels, confirmed that the paper included photographs planning to paddle wheel Euphrates The marshes of Iraq.

The Governor of the Central Bank on the Keywords, announced on Monday the (15 February 2016), the launch of the strategy of the Central Bank for the years 2016 to 2020, and stressed that the strategy was launched in accordance with a clear vision and a guaranteed and adopt monitoring and real follow-up financial situation of Iraq,while the detection of torque Bank Central to the public to sell bonds worth 7 trillion dinars during this year

Article Ends

This next article is also sooo powerful and tells us so much. So we know that Iraq has to pay all these oil workers salaries. Since Iraq is still a closed economy they have been paying them in USD. This has been the cycle of money in the past. They sell the oil they get paid in USD. They take the USD auction them off (get a premium on top of street value –corruption and this devalued the dinar yet more) in exchange from dinars from the banks. They pay the salaries of the foreign workers in USD. Since their currency is not yet international they can not pay them in dinars and must use a common media of exchange (which has been the USD longstanding).

So now the article below is telling us they plan to pay the foreign worker’s salaries in Bonds. Really?

Do you know what this means?

-less draw on the currency auctions (less need for USD)
-an attempt to stabilize the value of the dinar, as the IMF mandates
-maybe an attempt to slow or stop the currency auctions
-is a very short term solution (maybe a couple months at most) and can not continue this long term
-How will it be accepted? Will the workers agree to this method of payment? I do not know about you but if it was me I would reject such a method of payment unless I had a nice stash of cash already in the bank to live off of and could afford to invest and wanted to invest in Iraq by holding their bonds.

So although this article is short there are many ramifications to this action the CBI is about to take. I have tried to show you that it is not always so obvious on the surface what they are doing as there are always underlying reasons for every action they take. This must be our approach to analyzing this investment if we are ever going to get a realistic timeframe for the RV.

Article Begins

IRAQI GOVERNMENT TO GIVE UNPAID CONTRACTORS BONDS INSTEAD OF CASH 

Iraqi government contractors will be receiving bonds in lieu of cash as a solution to payment delays caused by the collapse in the nation's oil income, the central bank said on Sunday.

The bonds can be traded in the local market or cashed at banks for a discount, the central bank said in an emailed statement. It didn't indicate a maturity or interest rate.

The bonds can also be used as loan guarantees at face value, it added, without saying when the securities will be issued.

"The financial crisis cell headed by the prime minister agreed to the central bank's proposal to issue government bonds to pay the dues of contractors and suppliers ... hereby contributing to solving the problem of due payments," it said.

The government is struggling to meet payments as a costly war on Islamic State insurgents in the north and west drains a budget that is already strained by lower oil prices.

The Central Bank announced last month its first bond sale to the public since 2003 in an attempt to plug the budget deficit. (Reporting by Saif Hameed.; Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Ros Russell)

Article Ends

So now having said all this and getting two articles talking about currency this week do you think maybe something is up? We are at April 11th already just a couple days away from the end of their target time frame of mid March to mid April for the launching of the lower denoms. Oh- but wait a second they just told us they are printing (or have already printed as we don’t know for sure) newer lower denominations of the existing classes.

We also know they want to discontinue the currency auctions but they can’t until the dinar goes international. We also know they are in a pinch for money to make the deficit gap.

We know they will be voting on the cabinet reshuffle today, if not already done in an emergency parliament session over the weekend.

We know they will also be voting on a “basket of laws”. I am keen especially on the announcement of the Amnesty law, Judicial Reforms and de-Baathification laws. All of these are mandated prior to the IMF giving any permission for the RV to happen.

All these items keep rolling around in my head and then ….wammo we get these recent articles that I have explained above. Seems the timing is all around this week. Now do you see why I chose the mid March to mid April timeframe for an RV?

Let’s see what happens this week. I am already seeing it will be late and they already missed their target of mid April. However let us hope by the end of the week I can bring you some more amazing news.

Update: Fighting ISIS

Most importantly please, please, please let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe our prayers are in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing.

Remember too to pray to the princess of peace – Our Blessed Virgin Mary. She has the ear of Christ and she can intercede in heaven and bring us the peace we all desire here on earth. We can not do it alone. I believe that if we all make this our daily prayer you will see change. It is already working even in the short time since I have been publishing this prayer section. It does not matter what religion you believe, if you pray then to your oven beliefs entity it is still the same powers and good for all of mankind. Ultimately it is all the same God anyhow.

“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and coalition soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be victorious against them in the battle for Mosul! We ask that the victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin!

We pray for the speedy process of all reforms against gov’t lead corruption and that all those responsible in the past are brought to justice.

We pray for currency reform, the full implementation of the Iraqi economy to full international status and the bringing of prosperity and wealth to its people“ Amen!

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All,
Mnt Goat

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