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Thursday, June 23, 2016

Times to Stay Awake and Key Events for the Brexit Vote

Planning Your Brexit Night: Here Are The Key Events And Times To Stay Awake

by Tyler Durden - Jun 23, 2016 1:37 PM - Zero Hedge -> Source

While we previously posted a comprehensive guide to today's Brexit vote, as we approach the close of polling and enter the evening hours (in the US) and night (in the UK), the main question is which are the specific events that merit particular focus, if only for the benefit of FX traders who are sure to pull an all-nighter with hopes of sneaking in a few naps here and there.

Conveniently the Guardian has compiled the following guide breaking down "when to nap and the places to watch", highlighting the biggest turning points in tonight's events.

First, here is the TL/DR version:

Next, the full breakdown. All times local (and Eastern ).

10pm (5pm ET)

Polls will close, and on election nights this is normally the moment broadcasters show their exit polls and make their projection for the night ahead.

However, that won’t happen this time as there’s no exit poll for this referendum. Some banks are said to have commissioned private exit poll, but they will be kept for their employees.

So if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen at this stage, they’re a chancer, unless they are an eagle-eyed watcher of sterling derivative markets. Sky News has commissioned a survey from YouGov of people previously polled, asking how they voted on the day. This will be released at 10pm, but this is not, repeat not, an exit poll and shouldn’t be treated like one.

If you prefer moving pictures (tsk!) this is the line-up from the broadcasters.

BBC1: David Dimbleby will anchor BBC1’s coverage until the early hours. Emily Maitlis will be presenting as well and Jeremy Vine will have his snazzy graphics. The BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, and economics editor, Kamal Ahmed, will do the bulk of the analysis. If you’re not in the UK, you can watch the coverage on BBC World News.

ITV1: Tom Bradby will host the broadcaster’s coverage with the political editor, Robert Peston, and national editor, Allegra Stratton, speaking to politicians and pundits. Julie Etchingham will also present, and there will be live reaction from Brussels with ITV’s Europe editor, James Mates.

Sky News: Adam Boulton hosts, alongside political editor Faisal Islam, boasting a team of 50 correspondents at counts across the country.

CNN International: For international viewers, Richard Quest and Hala Gorani will anchor from CNN’s London bureau, with a touring “Brexit campervan” providing outside coverage. Christiane Amanpour will be with guests and analysts outside the Houses of Parliament, with correspondents contributing from Berlin and Brussels.

12.30am (7:30pm ET)

The voting is done by 380 council areas, not by constituencies, so it will play out slightly differently from election night. Sunderland (always the first in a general election) and Wandsworth are expected to declare first, and we can learn a bit from their results, depending on whether either campaign does better or worse than expected.

Wandsworth should have a very strong remain showing, with Sunderland showing a narrower lead for Brexit, about 55-60%. Anything lower than that for Brexit will be a great start for remain campaigners.

The City of London is expected to be among the first as well, declaring around 12.45am and likely to show a substantial lead for remain. The remain vote is likely to look high in the early hours of the morning. If it doesn’t, that’s a big problem for in campaigners.

Gibraltar and the Isle of Scilly will have high remain votes, but the voter numbers aren’t exactly huge. More telling will be results from Salford and Stockport, which will start to give us a sense of whether Labour’s safe seats in northern England are as pro-leave as has been predicted. That conversation could dominate the punditry for an hour or so.

Another to watch is Swindon, where leave will hope for a win, but a chunk of middle-income voters in their early- to mid-30s in the area – natural David Cameron voters – might push it towards remain.

Hartlepool, a leave heartland, is expected to declare during the hour, as is Merthyr Tydfil, which should also show a lead for leave.

Northern Irish results should start coming in, which will be interesting as there’s been very limited polling in the area. Most areas in Belfast should declare during the hour and instinct would suggest a remain lead, over concerns about the border crossing.

1am (8pm ET)

Gibraltar and the Isle of Scilly will have high remain votes, but the voter numbers aren’t exactly huge. More telling will be results from Salford and Stockport, which will start to give us a sense of whether Labour’s safe seats in northern England are as pro-leave as has been predicted. That conversation could dominate the punditry for an hour or so.

Another to watch is Swindon, where leave will hope for a win, but a chunk of middle-income voters in their early- to mid-30s in the area – natural David Cameron voters – might push it towards remain.

Hartlepool, a leave heartland, is expected to declare during the hour, as is Merthyr Tydfil, which should also show a lead for leave.

Northern Irish results should start coming in, which will be interesting as there’s been very limited polling in the area. Most areas in Belfastshould declare during the hour and instinct would suggest a remain lead, over concerns about the border crossing.

2am (9pm ET)

This hour is a good time to start concentrating, so put some coffee on.

Westminster, Wandsworth, Ealing and Oxford may give remain the lead here. These are likely to be very safe areas for a remain vote, with high numbers of graduates and younger voters.

We’ll also start to see a number of Scottish results rolling in, from Shetland, East Ayrshire and Angus. If these show only a weak lead for remain, it might be time for Cameron to worry.

Key Welsh boroughs to watch are Blaenau Gwent and Neath Port Talbot, where the opposite is true: Vote Leave will want a good win here, especially in the area troubled by the steel crisis, which Brexit campaigners have linked to the EU.

Castle Point, a key Eurosceptic area in south Essex, will declare around 2.30am. About 70% of voters are in favour of leaving the EU.

Crawley in West Sussex, a bellwether seat in the general election and also likely to be pretty evenly split at the referendum, is also due to declare, as is South Norfolk, where the split should also be telling.

According to JPMorgan's analysis, commissioned for investors, even if leave ultimately ends up victorious, the remain camp is likely to be in the lead until about 3am. If leave has a total vote share of about 40-45% at this stage, Stronger In will be celebrating.

But if that percentage for leave is more like 45-50%, it will be a very close run thing. Anything higher than that is an indication of a good night to come for Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Still, pundits are unlikely to call the race this early.

3am (10pm)

Boston in Lincolnshire, where 68% of voters are predicted to be in favour of Brexit, is likely to declare now. Cambridge, one of the strongest remain cities in the country, will declare here, though surrounding Cambridgeshire is very much out-land. Jeremy Corbyn’s distinctly Europhile constituency, Islington, will also declare during the hour.

Look out here for West Oxfordshire, home to David Cameron’s Witney constituency, so the result will be symbolic of something or other.

4am (11pm)

Time to hear from Tendring – home of Ukip’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, who represents Clacton – which is unsurprisingly one of the most Euroskecptic areas of the country. Great Yarmouth and Blackpool, both Brexit heartlands, could also bump up the leave share of the vote during the hour.

Harrogate, one of the most affluent areas of North Yorkshire, will be an interesting result to watch, especially if the leave campaign does better than expected.

Once South Staffordshire, Havering and Gravesham, all strong leave areas, are counted, the running tally should give a pretty fair idea of how the overall result will look, percentage-wise. Broadcasters may start officially calling the result from now.

5am (12am)

Manchester will declare by 5am, almost certainly for remain. However, by this time, about 80% of authorities are expected to have made a declaration, and it would be a huge surprise indeed if the final percentages differed greatly from the running tally at this hour.

Bristol, one of remain’s strongest areas and also the country’s slowest counter, will declare by about 6am, but it’s unlikely to make a massive difference.

7am (2am ET)

The official result should be in by now – unless there are substantial recounts needed and it is close – and Jenny Watson, who chairs the Electoral Commission, will announce the final tallies in Manchester.

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