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Thursday, May 3, 2018

Reader: Iran Nuclear Deal -- Is it me or is this Just a Bit too Convenient?

Submitted to Operation Disclosure | Anonymously

I have been looking at the Iran Nuclear deal recently, prompted by Q anon posts and have found a few things I thought I’d share.

The Iran Nuclear deal can be found here: https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf

In it:

iii.

Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

vii.

The E3/EU+3 and Iran acknowledge that the NPT remains the cornerstone of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament and for the peaceful uses of nu clear energy.

x.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be requested to monitor and verify the voluntary nuclear-related measures as detailed in this JCPOA. The IAEA will be requested to provide regular updates to the Board of Governors, and as provided for in this JCPOA, to the UN Security Council. All relevant rules and regulations of the IAEA with regard to the protection of information will be fully observed by all parties involved.

The Annexes to the document include technical details regarding implementation:
https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/

Now looking at Iran’s nuclear program here:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/iran.aspx

A couple of items jump out…

Iran is now limiting its enrichment-related activities and ceasing its work on heavy water-related projects, under an internationally-agreed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Most enriched uranium has now been removed from the country.

Regarding Bushehr

The original plans had two desalination plants, each of 100,000 m3/day capacity, linked to the reactors, but the Russian project dropped these. It appears that they were added later, and the first phase was commissioned in August 2014. With phase 2, the plant will provide 20% of the potable water for Bushehr city.

Further down:

The anticipated 7 TWh/yr from the Bushehr reactor frees up about 1.6 million tonnes of oil (11 million barrels) or 1800 million cubic metres of gas per year, which can be exported for hard currency. In 2013 Iran’s Energy Minister said that it saved some $2 billion per year in oil and gas, though on the basis of $50/bbl in 2017 the saving was $550 million per year. By October 2017 the reactor had produced 25 TWh, according to Rosatom.

Further down:

In January 2017 AEOI reported that UF6 was being injected into the first IR-8 centrifuges, within the framework of the JCPOA. It said that these are about 20 times the capacity of IR-1 centrifuges.

Further:

Iran has very small reported uranium resources, all in the <$130/kgU category, 1390 tU as reasonably assured and 3134 tU as inferred resources (2016 ‘Red Book’). The ore is reported to have significant levels of molybdenum and other impurities which create difficulties in enrichment. AEOI is responsible for uranium exploration, mining and treatment. Most exploration is in central Iran. (my question-Did the U1 uranium end up here?)

It is a good article – loads of information the above are jut some interesting excerpts.

Now today in a ZeroHedge article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-02/trump-all-decided-withdraw-iran-deal-iaea-refutes-netanyahu-speech

There's been little reporting focused on just how a team of Mossad agents waltzed into Iran to steal from "a dilapidated warehouse" over 100,000 of the country's most sensitive and damning documents.

To underscore this far-fetched scenario is literally the claim being made — that a large Mossad team walked into an Iranian warehouse to physically carry and secretly transport bulk print files and CDs out of the country — a senior Israeli intelligence official was widely quoted as saying of the covert operation, "We didn’t take everything because it was too heavy."

To this we might reply it was so nice of the Iranians and their feared and paranoia-driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to leave their most secretive and "hidden" files so unguarded and out in the open, and in an old unsecured building in which there "did not even appear to be a lock on the door" according to the NY Times.

AT the same time that Trump is reportedly to make a decision on the Iran deal, Israel announces this finding, and Iran itself says the deal is “un-sustainable”

http://dailycaller.com/2018/04/30/iran-deputy-foreign-minister-withdraw-nuclear-deal/

“The Iran nuclear deal is no longer sustainable for Iran in its present form, without regard to a US exit,” Araghchi stated Monday, according to the Iranian Students News Agency.

What I find convenient is the timing of Israel’s announcement and Iran’s as well.

It got me thinking though, what if the sanctions imposed on Iran aren’t too much a concern going forward because of the coming GCR? Iran’s currency will be much more valuable due to its oil reserves, and the lower refining costs. I could just be seeing what I want to see, but if that is the case, everyone gets to kill the deal and save face…except those bureaucrats in the EU pressuring the deal to continue.

Just some thoughts…

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